瑞銀上調美國加息預測 料今年將再加息共1.25厘
瑞銀美國首席經濟師Jonathan Pingle預計,11月聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議將連續第四次加息75點子,12月會議加息50點子,年末聯邦基金利率目標區間將來到4.25%至4.5%。而該行早前預計11月會議將加息50點子。
他料政策調整的累計影響將更加明顯,屆時FOMC將暫停並評估採取的緊縮政策,預計經濟硬著陸的風險升高,將此視為高度限制性政策。明年,他估計通脹將更快向2%靠攏,勞動力市場將大幅放緩。因此,預計FOMC將轉而降息(降息三次,每次25點子),即使到明年底,FOMC仍保持限制性政策。
另外,鮑威爾繼續用職位空缺來衡量勞動力市場強度的指標,Pingle認為這為進一步緊縮和經濟硬著陸帶來重大風險。2001年以及金融危機之前,隨著勞動力市場即將萎縮、陷入衰退,職位空缺接近或觸及周期頂部。作為滯後性指標,過度依賴職位空缺可能有錯失勞動力市場重要拐點的風險。(ek/s)
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