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《大行報告》瑞銀引述美聯(01200.HK)料本港樓價今年跌8% 不擔心美加息 估港府或放寬逆週期措施
阿思達克 09-22 10:49
瑞銀發表告表示,昨日與本港最大物業代理商美聯集團(01200.HK)進行投資者電話會議,該行引述美聯管理層估計本港住宅價格今年全年將下跌8%(年初至今已累跌7%),其中一手和二手成交量僅達到13,300及42,100個單位,按年各下降24%及19%。 美聯管理層認為美國加息僅屬本港樓市擔憂之一,而購房者現在擔心整體市場情緒和經濟前景,並指一手樓項目銷售率可能成為市場復甦的先行指標。 展望未來,美聯管理層指由於基本需求相對強勁,認為大眾住宅市場將繼續跑贏奢侈品市場。公司並不特別擔心加息的影響,因為香港家庭擁有強勁的資產負債表(2/3的家庭沒有擁有任何住房抵押貸款),因此認為本港失業率的影響更為重要,加上本港私人住宅土地供應減少和本港特區政府可能放鬆政策,美聯預計本港住宅樓價不會長期下滑。 美聯預計香港政府或將放寬逆週期措施以支持樓價,例如,免除目前在香港工作的外籍人士的印花稅。同時,鑑於資本准入計劃申請人的住房需求可能釋放,以及內地、外籍人士簽證申請和學生人數;以及香港政府潛在的人才引進計劃等因素。
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