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《大行報告》瑞銀:對大型內銀短期維持謹慎 傾向中行(03988.HK)和具質素地區銀行
瑞銀發表研究報告指,對於內地經濟展望的信心持續惡化,主要是受到嚴格防疫措施的拖累、以及對房地產的支持疲弱,加重對當地消費及投資需求的影響,該行料內地GDP增長目標已並不是當局現時的優先考慮點,並預料下半年經濟復甦緩慢,全年GDP增長或不足3%。 該行指,中央並不認為中國目前處於經濟或房產危機,並不可能推出「不惜一切」的刺激經濟措施;該行認為,或有機會下半年進一步降息,料不會推出太多重大的增量財政政策刺激。 該行表示,鑑於利潤率下跌和資產質量的不確定性等不利因素,大多數內銀對盈利指引持審慎態度,尤其大部分銀行淨息差仍將承壓,但下半年的下降幅度料收窄。 該行表示,對大型內銀短期維持謹慎,在充滿挑戰的環境下,仍看好中行(03988.HK)及郵儲銀行(01658.HK),以及具質素的地區銀行,後者展示了較好的純利上升走勢。
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