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招商證券:新能源車滲透率破30% 比亞迪續強 新勢力銷量零跑(09863.HK)連續兩月領先
內地電動汽車製造商零跑汽車(09863.HK)今日起至周五(23日)中午招股,電動車股今早造高,蔚來-SW(09866.HK)股價抽高6%報164.8元,理想-W(02015.HK)股價上揚6.3%,而小鵬汽車-W(09868.HK)股價抽上9.5%報62.45元,而比亞迪(01211.HK)股價漲3.2%。 招商證券國際發表報告表示,根據中汽協,內地8月新能源車銷售66.6萬輛,按年升100%及按月升12.3%(對比汽車行業按年升32.1%及按月跌1.5%),按年及按月均跑贏行業,規模再創歷史新高。根據乘聯會,新能源乘用車8月銷量為63萬輛,按年增長103.9%,純電/插混分別按年各升92%及159.2%,分別至49萬及14萬輛,插混佔比為22.5%。而新能源乘用車8月批發滲透率為30.1%,按月升3.7個百分點;自主、豪華及合資品牌的滲透率分別為49.8%、29.4%及4.9%。 該行指,新能源車第一梯隊方面,比亞迪新能源乘用車8月銷量突破至17萬輛,按月升7.3%,新能源汽車市佔率達27.5%。特斯拉8月銷售7.7萬輛,按月升172.8%。 新能源車第二梯隊方面,吉利(00175.HK)強勢崛起,8月以3.6萬輛位居第四,按月升18.1%,「極氪」交付7,000輛。問界銷量首次破萬,其中M7達2,700輛,預計9月繼續攀升。至於新勢力中,哪吒交付1.6萬輛(按月升14.1%)、零跑交付1.3萬輛(按月升4%)、蔚來交付1.1萬輛(按月升6.2%)、小鵬交付9,600輛(按月跌16.9%)、理想-W交付4,600輛(按月跌56.1%)及威馬交付4,600輛(按月持平),指哪吒及零跑連續兩月領先。 從終端市場表現及宏觀經濟數據判斷,短期需求端強度弱於預期,新能源汽車優質產品供給於第四季度快速上升,車廠面臨舊款清庫存及新增訂單不足的壓力,需警惕短期供需失衡令行業競爭加劇的風險。同時海外市場大幅波動,觸發風險偏好下行,或抑制成長股估值。該行建議耐心等待負面因素消化,逢低吸納優質成長股。投資策略為,新勢力推薦理想汽車(02015.HK)(首推)(予「增持」評級及目標價213元),油車混動化推薦比亞迪股份(1211.HK)(予「增持」評級及目標價387元)及吉利(00175.HK)(予「增持」評級及目標價25元)。
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