《大行報告》大摩:內房市場低迷及疫情仍是經濟主要障礙 料未來數季增長前景仍模糊
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,在強勁的基建投資推動下,內地8月經濟數據增長表現出色,但估計第三季GDP增長仍處於低於3%的水平,符合該行低於市場共識的預測。預計中共二十大召開後,當局或將採取更多協調一致的政策措施來緩解住房和新冠疫情的影響。
該行指,基建推動了內地8月經濟按年溫和增長,汽車銷售按年增長15.9%(7月份為9.7%),可能反映了汽車的採購稅減免和地方消費激勵。中下游製造業生產增長也保持相對較好表現,雖然其後因乾旱令發電受影響,但亦表明供應鏈繼續保持彈性。
大摩表示,內地房地產市場低迷和新冠疫情限制仍是主要增長障礙,房地產資本支出按年進一步下降1.7個百分點至-13.8%,內房開發商面臨流動性壓力,房地產相關商品(家電、家具)因房地產銷售疲軟而走軟,顯示措施仍不足以恢復市場信心,儘管服務生產指數按年有所回升,但主要是由於基數較低。
該行表示,內地未來經濟增長復甦取決於如何緩解內房市場和疫情問題,隨著房地產市場持續低迷和疫情限制的揮之不去,料內地未來幾個季度的經濟增長前景可能仍模糊,料由2022年第三季度至2023年第一季度經濟增長平均處於約3%的較低水平。該行觀望當局出台更強以有力的住房政策支持,例如對房屋竣工的更大資金支持,對開發商更明確的流動性支持。
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