歐洲要搞"計劃經濟"了?
今天歐洲央行將基準利率從0%提升至0.75%,8年以來首次突破零點大關。此次75個基點的加息高於此前7月份的50個基點,也說明歐洲央行和美聯儲越來越同步了,也越來越激進了。
來源 | 公衆號:美投investing
歐洲央行主席說,此次加息75個基點是委員會一致同意通過的,而未來幾個會議,他們打算繼續加息來抑制通脹。八月份,歐元區的通脹水平已經來到了9.1%比七月份的8.9%還高出了0.2%,並沒有出現任何放緩的跡象。
央行主席還說對於未來經濟的情況他們有幾種預測,其中最糟糕的情況是俄羅斯能源全面斷供,而美國和挪威的支援也無法彌補這部分的空缺。那麼在這種情況下,歐洲經濟將在2023年出現負增長,屆時整個歐元區只能重新按需分配剩下的能源。而央行主席也承認,現階段歐洲已經無限接近全面斷供了,只剩下烏克蘭地區還有一些供給。她表示歐洲的未來確實“挺黑暗”的。如果企業和消費者被迫進行能源配給,那麼消費信心和供應鏈問題都會變得更加糟糕。
聽完歐洲央行主席這番話,我都替她感到委屈。
他們面臨的通脹是個供給端的問題,由於俄羅斯斷供,歐洲能源極度緊缺,這導致能源價格飆漲,通脹飆升。可是央行的加息卻只能作用於需求端,對於供給端毫無影響。巧婦難爲無米之炊,俄羅斯斷供,歐洲央行再怎麼加息,也很難抑制住不斷上漲的能源價格。可是這息又不得不加,而能源又是個消費必需品,最終的結果可能是能源價格壓不下來,但經濟卻給按下來了。我們現在看到,疲軟的歐洲經濟已經導致歐元大幅貶值。而貶值的歐元還會讓歐洲進口能源變得更加昂貴。這對於歐洲經濟來說無疑是雪上加霜。
那邊湘歐洲加息哀鴻遍野,這邊廂加拿大央行也在昨天宣佈了加息,可情況就要好不少了。加拿大央行宣佈加息75個基點,從2.5%提高到3.25%。這較上一次加息100個基點的幅度稍有放緩。這可能是因爲加拿大的通脹七月份的通脹從上個月8.1%降至7.6%。但央行表示,七月份的下降是油價驅動的,如果剔除油價,通脹其實還在升高,特別是服務業方面,國內需求還很強勁,可能會繼續助推通脹。所以未來依然要繼續加息。
雖然都是加息75個基點,且都要繼續加息,但加拿大和歐洲的處境卻截然不同。儘管能源價格上漲也驅動着本國的通脹,但加拿大本身就是個能源大國,能源價格的升高對於本國的經濟是有幫助的。目前加拿大的油企還都比較剋制,所以經濟並沒有想象中強勁。但是這個勢能是歐洲所不具備的。另一方面加拿大國內的需求依然旺盛,二季度GDP仍然增長了3.3%,勞動力市場也相對健康。可以說,在全球經濟疲軟之際,加拿大經濟相對來說會更有韌性。
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