長江證券:三大原因致8月出口走弱,預計9月出口下行斜率或相對較緩
格隆匯9月8日丨海關總署9月7日發佈8月外貿數據:以美元計,我國8月出口3149.2億美元,進口2355.3億美元,貿易順差爲793.9億美元。長江證券稱,8月我國出口增速超預期大幅回落至7.1%,與高頻數據所觀察到出口走弱的證據吻合。出口走弱原因何在?原因有三:
1)外需走弱對我國出口的影響開始逐步顯現;
2)去年同期基數有明顯擡升,對同比數據造成影響;
3)3-4月受疫情影響積壓的商品在5-7月補發基本結束,對出口支撐力度明顯減弱。
進口方面,受我國疫情多點散發影響,內需持續偏弱,8月我國進口金額同比增速回落至0.3%。
展望未來,外需持續走弱疊加去年同期基數較高,我國出口或持續下行,但考慮到海外節日臨近出口或有支撐,9月出口下行斜率或相對較緩。
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