瑞銀孟磊:A股下半年盈利料呈緩步復甦態勢 增速或約4%
瑞銀表示,中國市場第二季盈利增速放緩,名義GDP增長動能放緩,使全部A股營業收入的按年增速從第一季的12%放緩至第二季的6%。而板塊間分化明顯,消費板塊盈利總體放緩,但必需消費品的盈利維持相對韌性,食品飲料仍錄得正增長。
瑞銀證券中國股票策略分析師孟磊認為,第二季或為今年盈利的低點,且隨著基數逐步降低,下半年盈利情況會呈緩步復甦態勢。全年來看,該行預計全部A股的盈利增速或將落在4%左右。另外,目前,賣方的一致預期(滬深300全年盈利增長14%)仍遠高於該行的預測。
孟磊建議配置具備較強的盈利可預見性、穩健的定價能力且/或受益於政策利好的行業,包括超配食品飲料、動力電池、可再生能源和國防軍工板塊。
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