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《大行报告》中银国际引述碧桂园(02007.HK):部份二线城市销售令人鼓舞 估三线及以下城市销售降幅收窄
阿思达克 09-06 14:48
碧桂园(02007.HK)今日股价造高,最新报2.34元升8.8%。中银国际今日发表报告表示,上周五(2日)邀请了碧桂园管理层出席了该行所举行的非交易路演。该行引述碧桂园管理层指,内地楼市在不同城市的市场呈现分化,差异不仅仅由城市层级决定,同一级别城市之间也存在差异。碧桂园管理层指,留意到西安、成都和合肥等二线城市的情况令人鼓舞,而东北一些二线城市的合同销售则疲软。 对于内地三线及以下城市内房销售,碧桂园管理层预计今年下半年降幅将有所收窄,合同销售将更加稳定。考虑到季节性影响,预计7月及8月合同销售将按月下降。总体而言,与较高线城市相比,公司管理层预计低线城市可能需要更长时间恢复。 碧桂园管理层表示,公司限制性现金和非限制性现金保持相对平衡。截至今年6月底止,现金及现金等价物为1,480亿元人民币,其中250亿人民币为未释放的预售房建设保证金,460亿元人民币为剩余的预售房建设保证金。总计约700亿元人民币,约占现金余额的48%。 中银国际引述碧桂园管理层预计毛利率需要一至两年才能恢复,尽管低线城市的需求可能会在几个季度内恢复,但由于土地成本、房地产价格和供应情况等因素的综合影响,毛利率可能仍然很低。随著需求逐渐从周期性低迷中复苏,库存周期可能会逐渐恢复,平均售价可能会逐渐改善。随著许多资金紧张的同行退出市场,碧桂园预计内地的土地价格将下降至更合理的水平。所有这些因素都将导致未来利润率的提高。综上所述,将来毛利率有望改善,但未来一至两年可能仍处于低位。
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