瑞銀:維持內地今年GDP增長3%預測
瑞銀投資銀行研究部預計,內地即將公布的8月宏觀數據可能顯示經濟活動呈現弱復甦,主要受益於低基數,其中工業生產和社會消費品零售按年增速回升,而新一輪疫情反覆、局部地區面臨乾旱沖擊和能源短缺問題可能抑制經濟活動復甦的勢頭。
瑞銀預計,今年下半年內地會持續增加政策支持,但應不會出台「不惜代價」的強刺激措施,並認為下半年央行還可能進一步下調政策利率和LPR,但更重要的是應大力提振信貸需求。
瑞銀預計,隨著防疫政策放鬆,以政策支持加碼的效果逐漸顯現,第三季GDP按季折年增長率或達12%,按年增預計僅為3%左右,料預計四季經濟按季增長勢頭會有所放緩,維持對內地今年全年GDP增長為3%的預測。(ca/u)
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