《大行報告》瑞銀料內地樓市低迷不太可能導致典型債務危機 但料內銀或需數年時間清理
瑞銀發表報告,認為內地房地產市場低迷,不太可能導致信貸失控的典型債務危機、致觸發信貸緊縮、銀行倒閉和貨幣大幅貶值;而且內地的高儲蓄率,大多數銀行的所有權屬國有、兌現存款的往績、並提供流動性、按揭首期金額大和政府對土地供應的控制,以及對資本外流的廣泛控制,有助於防止市場強制去槓桿的惡性循環。
瑞銀表示,房地產行業相關的不良貸款可能會急速上升,許多銀行的清理工作將需要數年時間。
瑞銀假設,進一步的行業支持措施和逐步放寬防疫政策,將令房地產開工和銷售將很快地在低基數上趨穩,隨後溫和復甦;消費和投資將進一步下行,預計會有更多的企業或房企違約。
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