瑞銀汪濤維持中國今年經濟增長3%預測 料按揭利率或進一步下調
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管、首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,中國經濟形勢面臨着較大的下行壓力,下半年隨着疫情進一步控制及政策的加碼,經濟會比第二季有明顯的好轉,不過第三季反彈的強度可能沒有早前預期的強,有一部分的反彈或會延遲至第四季才能反映出來。
該行維持中國今年經濟增長預測在3%,但汪濤稱可能還面臨一定下行壓力,有可能未能達到3%。而未來可能看到政策進一步的加碼,如房地產政策,很多城市已經解除或者緩解限購,按揭利率也有所下調,銀行按揭貸款批準方面可能會較爲容易。另外她指最近政策性銀行,所謂保交房及紓困基金也開始啓動,作用會陸續發揮。
她認爲中國有可能進一步下調按揭利率,政府可以安排更多的過橋貸款、過橋融資,幫助房地產開發商解決目前資金鍊的問題。房地產行業可能會出現一系列的整合,個別房地產企業可能違約的現象仍會發生,但整體來看在未來的幾個月整個房地產可能會企穩,包括銷售和新開工方面可能企穩。
至於降息的幅度預期非常有限,貨幣政策可能在降低按揭利率、保持流動性充裕以及保證信貸增長能夠不下滑方面能發揮更大的作用,但她認爲不必太擔心今年下半年通脹的問題,因爲中國經濟面臨更大的挑戰可能是經濟下行的壓力,而不是通脹的壓力。
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