郭思治: 盡早撈入滿貫集團(03390.HK) 靜待通關刺激反彈
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市在今次業績期沒有太多利好消息刺激的情況下,一直處於牛皮上落的狀態。下半年只剩下四個月,料新政府班子在10月發佈《施政報告》時多少需要帶出一些刺激香港經濟的消息,而通關的進展將是重中之重,因此,在此前建議盡早撈入通關概念相關的股份靜候反彈。
筆者留意到,分銷保濟丸、何濟公、太和洞久咳丸等知名中成藥的滿貫集團(03390.HK),在疫情前的收入其實主要以來港旅客消費為主,2018年大概7億港元的收入中,分銷業務佔比97%左右,而其淨利潤達1億港元水平。而公司剛剛發佈的2022年上半年業績則提及,該公司自2020年新冠疫情開始已經早著先機發展跨境電商業務,至今業績扭虧為盈證明其線上線下雙輪驅動的策略已見成效。其中,上半年收入按年增長逾五成至差不多6億港元,其中分銷業務大約3億港元,佔比50%,餘下50%則為電商業務。
這除了意味著電商業務成為重要的收入來源,亦代表著假如受惠通關消息刺激,滿貫集團的分銷業務有望逐漸回到疫情前水平,假如實現通關的話,公司的整體收入將保守估計至少增加兩三億港元。
當然,滿貫並沒有守株待兔地等候通關的消息,該公司同步積極發展跨境電商,這點的利好是,即使內地消費者仍未能通過自由行抵港,仍能轉往線上平台購買信譽良好的保健及防疫產品。從數據來看,今年上半年,滿貫接近3億港元的電商銷售業務收入,亦能在疫情下錄得按年三成的增幅,十分靚麗。滿貫表示,未來會繼續積極擴大電商業務,開拓內地藍海市場。
由此可見,封關並不影響其收入增長,而開關是會進一步拉動整個收入池。換言之,在滿貫已經形成新的健康盈利模式的當下,配合國家刺激大健康市場的政策東風,以及香港開關的利好預期,滿貫下半年甚至未來的日子業績將會往更好的趨勢成長,建議適量吸納,目標上望2元,技術止蝕可設於1.30元。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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