《內地樓市》惠譽:內地疲弱土地市場尚未迎來可持續復甦
惠譽評級在最新發布的一份報告中稱,2022年前七個月中國的土地出讓金大跌,目前尚未迎來可持續復甦,因為面對疲弱的房地產銷售和受阻的融資渠道,許多房企仍選擇優先保存流動性而非補充土地儲備。
2022年前七個月,全國土地出讓金按年縮減42.2%至2.4萬億元人民幣,且大部分省級地區按年降幅超過30%。由於土地市場自2021年中期開始降溫,較小的基數使今年6月和7月的當年累計土地出讓金按年降幅有所收窄。
採用集中供地的高線城市中,不同地區間仍存在顯著分化。2022年前七個月,瀋陽和長春這兩個東北城市的土地出讓金按年至少下降90%。相比之下,由於土拍節奏快於去年同期,合肥、深圳和成都的土地出讓金按年增加38%至52%。
土地市場情緒低迷的許多城市已敦促城投企業拿地(經常零溢價),以控制流拍率,縮小財政收入缺口。然而,由於大部分城投企業的房地產開發能力有限,這種做法可能不具有可持續性。
中指數據庫顯示,2022年前七個月,權益合同銷售額最高的100家房企中的70家未補充土地儲備,其餘房企大都削減了拿地支出。儘管如此,仍有9家房企的拿地支出相對於其合同銷售額大幅增加,原因包括追求規模擴張,重點城市的土地供應加快或地方政府要求其支持土地市場。
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