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一文綜合大行於國壽(02628.HK)公布業績後的最新評級、目標價及觀點
中國人壽(02628.HK)今早股價偏軟,最新報11.52元跌1.4%。高盛認為,國壽中期淨利潤按年跌38%大致符合預期,但今年第二季賬面值按季改善3%至4,800億元人民幣,高於該行預測5%,指國壽次季投資收入較該行預計顯著改善,可出售資產未實現投資利潤結餘截至6月底止為605億元人民幣,較去年低685億元人民幣相比減少程度不大,相信非常正面的結餘給予國壽下半年顯著空間提振盈利,加上去年下半年淨利潤基數僅為100億元人民幣,遠低於去年上半年的410億元人民幣,因此預期國壽第三季及第四季淨利潤增長強勁。 國壽昨收市後公布中期純利按年跌38%至254.16億元人民幣;每股盈利0.9元人民幣。收入按年跌4%至5,166.7億元人民幣。期內總保費收入按年跌0.5%至4,399.69億元人民幣;新業務價值按年跌14%至257.45億元人民幣。截至6月底止公司內含價值較去年底升4%至12,508.77億元人民幣。上半年新單保費按年升4%至1,393.58億元人民幣。首年期交保費跌1%至798.38億元人民幣,期內退保率按年跌0.16個百分點至0.51%。 【盈利符預期 觀未來復甦】 摩根大通指,國壽中期業績勝該行預期,中期純利潤達250億元人民幣,意味今年第二季淨利潤按年跌幅從首季的47%收窄至次季的17%,且壽險及儲備表現堅韌,保險經紀人數亦回穩,次季按季跌4%至75萬,因此不認為因生產力邊際惡化導致的新業務價值收縮為風險。此外,國壽核心償付能力充足率維持合適水平。該行預期國壽未來季度壽險增長恢復,將為股價未來3至6個月的催化劑。該行續給予國壽「增持」評級及目標價15元。 里昂認為,國壽中期新業務價值下跌符該行預期,受保險經紀人數持續下跌影響,較去年同期減少35%。會計淨利潤按年跌38%,受市場波動影響,較市場預期低5%,但第二季淨利潤跌幅低於第一季。中期股本回報率為10%,去年同期為18%。該行指國壽整體業績表現在首季見底後,於第二季回穩,並可能跑贏同業,但該行質疑國壽跑贏同業的情況能否在中期持續。該行給予國壽「跑輸大市」評級及目標價11.7元。 -------------------------------------------------------- 本網最新綜合5間券商對其投資評級及目標價: 券商│投資評級│目標價(港元) 高盛│買入│18.5元 美銀證券│買入│16元 瑞信│跑贏大市│15元 摩根大通│增持│15元 摩根士丹利│與大市同步│12元 里昂│跑輸大市│11.7元 券商│觀點 高盛│淨利潤符預期,次季投資表現強勁 美銀證券│中期新業務價值按年跌14%,勝預期 瑞信│新業務價值跑贏同業符預期,稅後淨利潤因投資表現受壓 摩根大通│內涵值增長穩定顯示對儲備質素信心 摩根士丹利│業績優於同業 里昂│次季業績回穩,中期淨利潤跌38%略遜預期 (fc/w) ~
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