一文綜合券商於申洲(02313.HK)公布業績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
申洲國際(02313.HK)今早股價捱沽,盤中曾低見77.2元一度下挫10.3%,最新報79.05元跌8.1%。瑞銀發表報告表示,申洲國際上半年淨利潤按年增6%優於預測,主要由於匯兌收益,惟毛利率收縮幅度較預期大,該行指申洲管理層對今年第四季及明年上半年訂單指引保,相關訂單仍未最終確定,該行相信是大型客戶去庫存及市場需求疲軟所致,並將其目標價由100港元下調至95港元,維持其「中性」評級。
申洲昨(25日)收市後公布截至今年6月底止中期業績,營業額135.93億元人民幣(下同),按年升19.6%。純利23.67億元,按年升6.3%;每股盈利1.57元。中期息維持1.06港元。
期內,毛利約30.7億元,按年下跌約9.1%;毛利率為約22.6%,較去年同期之約29.7%下降7.1個百
分點。集團預期下半年至明年上半年,紡織服裝行業可能遭受因需求不足而帶來產能利用率下降的影響,全球性的通脹壓力將會持續,企業之盈利將繼續承壓。未來行業將加快整合,甚至產生供應鏈企業因盈利和現金流壓力而遭受淘汰的現象,行業之新增投資亦將放緩。
【憂訂單前景 績後股價挫】
美銀證券發表研究報告,指申洲上半年稅後淨利按年增長6.3%,受匯兌收益帶動,表現超出預期。若撇除匯兌收益的影響,期內核心稅後淨利按年跌20%,只符合預期。該行認為,市場對中國需求疲軟和海外市場渠道庫存增加感到擔憂,由於優化利用率及新增訂單具不確定性,預期毛利率要恢復到疫情前水平可能需要更長時間,因此將2022至2023年每股盈利預測下調2%及8%,將申洲目標價下調11%至130港元,重申「買入」評級。
高盛表示,申洲中期純利優預期因錄巨額匯兌收益,但關注公司短期訂單及毛利率面臨壓力,指訂單存不明朗素素,關注公司如何多元化客戶基礎。該行下調對申洲目標價由113元降至107元,相當預測2023年市盈率25倍,維持「買入」評級。
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下表列出6間券商對其評級及目標價:
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
美銀證券│買入│146元->130元
野村│買入│169.7元->124.5元
高盛│買入│113元->107元
瑞信│跑贏大市│113元->106元
摩根士丹利│增持│105元
瑞銀│中性│100元->95元
券商│觀點
美銀證券│優化利用率及新增訂單具不確定性,下調明後兩年每股盈利預測
野村│訂單前景不明朗,料今年第四季及明年上半年訂單量能見度較低
高盛│關注公司短期訂單及毛利率面臨壓力
瑞信│上半年收入勝預期惟利潤增長遜預期錯失,訂單前景仍存不確定性
摩根士丹利│訂單前景不明朗,但上半年出貨量穩健增長對為復甦期奠定基礎
瑞銀│考慮到明年銷售增長放緩及毛利率低於預期,下調2022至2024年盈測
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