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申萬宏源:長端降息刺激地產,降準置換概率提升

本文來自格隆匯專欄: 申萬宏源宏觀,作者: 秦泰

事件:8月LPR非對稱下調,其中1Y LPR下調5BP至3.65%,5Y LPR下調15BP至4.3%。

7月以來房地產需求再度趨弱,本次長端LPR下調幅度更大,意在對房地產市場形成更加直接的刺激。去年下半年以來房地產市場需求持續弱化,今年二月中旬以來二三線城市普遍實施多種因城施策手段刺激地產需求,包括下調首套首付比例、下調本地房貸LPR加點、“房票”作為貨幣化安置的替代選項等措施,力度不可謂不大,但收效相對有限。6月上海解封一度帶動全國地產銷售大幅回暖,但7月之後再度轉弱,居民去槓桿的過程仍在持續,前期地產銷售的改善更多是疫情防控期間積壓需求的一次性釋放。

本次5Y LPR再度一次性下調達15BP,意圖在於對全國房地產需求形成全面性的直接刺激。在LPR改革之後,各行業中長期貸款均已將5Y LPR作為利率浮動的基準,本次15BP的下調首先具有比較直接的引導包括基建、地產、製造業企業在內的各類企業融資成本下降的作用,惠及面比較廣泛。而從新增貸款直接受益的領域來看,居民房貸則無疑是受益最直接的。與企業貸款的LPR加減點是根據企業和項目信用風險評級逐筆確定不同,居民房貸的LPR加減點是相對透明並且標準單一的,從而5Y LPR的下調直接有助於減少存量和新增房貸合同的月還款額,對30年期等額還款購房合同,今年以來5Y LPR累降35BP可合計帶來5%左右的月供減少,從而有助於提升同等房價假設下居民購房的購買力,有助於增加居民購房需求。

LPR改革以來首次出現1Y LPR-MLF利率利差擴大,主要為避免企業和金融機構短期槓桿套利行為,也顯示當前信用擴張的主要目標在於促進中長貸投放拉動有效投資。本次1Y LPR下調僅5BP,調整幅度低於市場預期,也是LPR改革以來第一次出現1Y LPR降幅小於MLF利率降幅的情況,兩者利差時隔8個月後重回90BP,此前這一水平穩定長達27個月(2019.9-2021.11)。今年二季度上海疫情期間,一些製造業企業面臨較大的生產週轉壓力,已經超大規模借入短期信貸資金進行過橋,當前央行通過壓縮1Y LPR下調幅度,傳遞出避免企業和金融機構借短放長、過度進行短期槓桿套利行為的政策含義,並且相當明確地顯示出當前信用擴張的主要目標在於促進中長貸投放拉動有效投資,而短期信貸已經不是重點。

本次非對稱降息後或將進入一段時間的利率穩定、地產需求刺激效果觀察期,而由於商業銀行存貸款利差壓力加大,年內操作降準置換MLF的必要性和概率均有提升。利率下調傳導到房地產需求側需要一兩個季度的時間,今年以來5Y LPR已經累計下降35BP,顯著大於2020年的下調15BP,加之8MLF淨回籠2000億,從量的角度確認了當前銀行間流動性過度充裕,後續不再進行增量淨投放的方向,預計銀行間資金利率會向7天逆回購利率中樞逐步靠攏,進一步的降息空間也相對較小。從商業銀行存貸款利差角度來看,存款利率自律機制市場化改革將10Y國債收益率、1Y LPR納入模型,但今年前8個月下行幅度小於貸款利率,存貸款利差收窄壓力較大,一方面意味着央行以成本更低的降準方式置換高成本的MLF以降低銀行負債成本更加迫切,另一方面也反向約束了未來5Y LPR進一步下調的空間。我們重申9月可能全面降準50BP以在9-11月間置換超過5000億存量MLF的預測不變。而房地產需求扭轉並非一朝一夕,工業化城鎮化再平衡、以及旨在增加居民收入的財政擴張措施的配合也尤為重要。

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