海豐國際(01308.HK):1H22盈利符合預期;股息收益率具備吸引力
1H22 業績符合我們預期 海豐國際公佈2022 年上半年業績:收入22.6 億美元,同比增長69%;歸母淨利潤11.7 億美元,同比增長140%,符合我們預期。公司中期分紅比例維持70%(去年同期為71%),對應10%的中期股息率,我們認為具備吸引力。 2022 年上半年,公司集裝箱運量同比增長8%,對應2 季度同比增長11%,較1 季度的5%有所提速,主要受益於新船交付。上半年平均運價同比增長57%(去年同期增長42%),對應2 季度環比下降2%。2 季度,中國出口集裝箱運價指數日本航線增長3%,但是韓國航線和東南亞航線分別下降3%和17%。公司表現好於市場,運價相對穩定,我們認為主要受益於高質量的服務以及長期合約佔比較高。成本同比增長36%,慢於收入增速,我們認為主要來自有效的成本控制。毛利潤加速同比增長116%,毛利潤率增長12 百分點至53%(去年同期為42%)。 發展趨勢 2022 年盈利有望維持強勁,確定性逐步提升。考慮當前供應鏈效率依然較低,同時港口擁堵持續,我們預計2022 年即期運價仍將維持高位,合約價則有望在續約時相應上調。雖然2022 年租船成本也或將大幅上漲,但是考慮公司有望在2022-2025 年交付一批新型低成本自有船舶,我們預計公司將減少租船。上半年新交付7 艘新船,期末自有船舶佔比達到76%。我們預計新船交付以及租賃成本更低的小型船有望降低租船價格,從而將成本限制在可控水平,利好全年業績增長。 市場對2023-2024 年需求趨勢和新船交付仍有分歧。即使考慮潛在拆船量增加,Alphaliner依然預計2023 年全球船隊規模將同比增長8%。能效指數EEXI和碳排放指數CII等碳減排新規將於2023 年開始實施,或導致老舊船舶減速行駛以及提早退役。考慮3000 標準型小型船的訂單/運力比低於8000 標準型船舶(15% vs. 35%),我們預計亞洲內部市場(主要部署較小的船舶)或將因相對均衡的供需條件而表現優異。但是,由於船舶訂單有限導致的有效運力損失是否能支撐當前高水平的運價仍有待觀察。 盈利預測與估值 維持2022-2023 年收入預測43.4 億美元和37.5 億美元,並維持歸母淨利潤預測20.3 億美元和15.2 億美元。目前,公司交易於4.2 倍和5.6 倍2022-2023年市盈率。我們維持跑贏行業評級和目標價38.60 港元,對應7 倍和9 倍2022-2023 年市盈率,較當前股價具備56.9%上行空間。假設全年分紅比例為70%,將對應17%股息率;若派發特別股息,我們認為有超預期的可能。 風險 港口擁堵情況緩解或新船交付釋放運力。
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