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閲文集團(00772.HK):業績基本符合預期 降本增效下運營效率提升
格隆匯 08-16 00:00
1H22 Non-IFRS 歸母淨利潤基本符合我們預期 公司公佈1H22 業績:公司將重點從優先考慮當期收入增長轉向運營效率和成本結構優化,收入40.87 億元,同比下降5.9%;Non-IFRS 歸母淨利潤6.66 億元,高於市場預期(6.18 億元),基本符合我們預期(6.90 億元)。 發展趨勢 在線業務重在孵化精品,版權運營業務受自營遊戲拖累。1)在線業務:1H22在線業務收入為23.07 億元,同比下降9.2%。1H22 在線業務MAU 2.65 億人,同比增長13.8%,其中免費閲讀DAU 為1,400 萬人;由於免費閲讀業務發展,付費用户數同比下滑12.9%至810 萬人,付費閲讀ARPPU 為38.8元/月,同比提升6.6%。1H22 自有平台和騰訊自營渠道收入分別同比下降6.3%和1.7%,而第三方平台收入因部分合作中止同比下降35.8%。我們認為,公司在線業務重在孵化精品,夯實IP 內容生態,短期而言業務本身增長潛力有限。2)版權運營業務:雖然公司劇集、電影、版權授權及動畫收入穩健增長,但因自營遊戲流水下滑,1H22 除新麗傳媒外版權運營業務收入同比下降28.3%至8.14 億元。新麗傳媒收入9.67 億元,實現利潤2.1 億元。 降本增效戰略持續推進,運營效率提升。1H22 毛利率52.5%,同比下降0.2ppt,其中在線業務和版權運營業務毛利率分別同比提升2.9ppt 和下降4.8ppt,我們認為毛利率下降或因自營遊戲收入下滑和新麗傳媒部分項目總額法確認的結構性影響。1H22 銷售費用率27.2%,同比下降3.9ppt;管理費用率13.6%,同比下降1ppt,降本增效戰略下運營效率提升。公司亦在1H22 業績會上提到,下半年會繼續控制銷售和管理費用支出。我們認為,當下宏觀環境下,公司對ROI 的重視優先級提前,運營效率有望持續優化。 IP 可視化和商品化推進,看好版權運營的長期價值空間。公司IP 可視化方面,影視和動畫作品產出多部爆款,而IP 供給側多元化嶄露頭角,如科幻是平台1H22 增長最快閲讀品類,我們認為這亦順應國內娛樂產品工業化提升趨勢;IP 商業化初步探索,《鬥破蒼穹》美杜莎雕像GMV 達500 萬元。 展望2H22 新麗傳媒劇集上線或待播包括《玫瑰之戰》(8 月8 日已播出)《縱有疾風起》《新川日常》《潛伏者》等。我們認為,公司IP 平台能力穩固,在IP 孵化、開發和運營具有競爭優勢,關注其長期發展空間。 盈利預測與估值 因自營遊戲收入下滑,我們下調2022 年Non-IFRS 歸母淨利潤7.4%至14.4 億元,維持2023 年Non-IFRS 歸母淨利潤預測不變。現價對應19/14倍2022/2023 年Non-IFRS P/E。維持跑贏行業評級,因盈利預測下調,剔除股數變動影響(授予員工股份行權變化)下調目標價7.4%至42.2 港元,對應2022/2023 年25/18 倍Non-IFRS P/E,較現價32.5%上行空間。 風險 內容監管收緊;線上閲讀用户增長及IP運營業務收入低於預期。
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