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《大行報告》麥格理下調友邦(01299.HK)目標價至77元 評級「中性」
阿思達克 08-16 11:19
麥格理發表研報指,友邦保險(01299.HK)將於下周公布業績,預計表現將較疲軟,主要挑戰來自於中國內地新業務價值(VNB)增長前景,或拖累其估值。 該行指,雖然預期中國疫情及封城的影響已充分反映在股價之上,但未知期內友邦中國業務能否維持VNB利潤率水平,同時預期美元強勢及股市疲軟,將在短期內對財務表現及內含價值(EV)產生負面影響。由於內地業務增長疲軟,麥格理下調友邦上半年VNB預測。香港業務方面,該行預期防疫限制放寬,次季將出現復甦,但由於美元利率較高,保障類產品VNB利潤率可能會下降;同時關注澳門VNB的增長情況。 此外,報告認為內地開發商對友邦影響有限。友邦保險目前持有25億美元的投資級債券及內地房地產開發商的股票,預期影響是有限,風險敞口相當於其可投資基金的1%或股票總數的4%。 由於內地VNB增長放緩,該行將友邦目標價由78元下調至77元,今明兩年每股盈利預測上調2.4%及2.1%,2024年下調0.7%,重申「中性」評級,在保險公司H股中仍偏好友邦,多於其他中資保險公司。不過,內地增長放緩或抵銷100億美元回購計劃的益處。
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