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《大行報告》美銀證券料內地樓市「硬著陸」應可避免 料不會陷日本式危機
美銀證券發表中國資本市場策略報告表示,指近期市場情緒轉為悲觀,新冠疫情反覆及地緣政治緊張局勢降低了市場的情緒,該行走訪資深的內地及香港投資者,均表示擔心房地產市場動盪會在短期內導致「硬著陸」,或者在長期內會出現日本式的資產價格長期下跌和銀行危機,指投資者所關心的問題,已從「GDP增長是否仍是政策重點」轉至到「中國人是否仍會購買房地產」,再到「內銀是否會進行資本重組」等,相關投資暫均表示無考慮到「牛市」的情境,但該行指在歷史上往往是市場觸底的跡象。 就內房政策方面,該行認為,鑑於中國的高債務槓桿、對房地產行業的過度依賴以及人口老齡化,房地產去槓桿是正確的做法,並指去槓桿將不可避免地導致短期陣痛(如經濟增長放緩、違約率上升),並指當下政府似乎下定了決心。迄今為止,中國沒有採取任何自上而下的重大寬鬆政策,而是專注於由地方政府主導的個案解決方案。如果短期內房屋銷售沒有改善,該行認為需要更多自上而下的政策放鬆。由於中國仍有足夠的政策槓桿來刺激房地產需求,如降低抵押貸款利率、降低首付、放寬二套房和抵押貸款等,該行認為內房市場「硬著陸」的情況是可以避免的。 就有市場人士擔心內房問題會否發展至以住日本曾經歷的危機,該行認為中國銀行在過去11年預測市賬率估值,從1.2倍下調至0.4倍,認為銀行體系也已做好準備。與1980至1990年代的日本銀行相比,中資銀行的資產/股權槓桿率更低、撥備覆蓋率更高、撥備前盈利能力更強,其估值已經反映了風險。此外,中國封閉的資本賬戶和持續的信貸創造或能夠支撐房地產價格。如果中國能夠在房地產領域實現平穩的「供給側改革」,未來的經濟增長可能會放緩,但會更加健康。隨著時間的推移,綠色經濟(例如電動汽車)和先進製造業可能在GDP中發揮更重要的作用,該行仍預計中國今年下半年資本市場反彈,並建議投資者逢低增加長期增長板塊。 美銀證券指在「極度熊市」的情境下,如果50-60%的內房開發商(基於預售市場份額)陷入困境,並且其中50-60%的項目停滯不前,則可能會影響25-36%的預售抵押貸款,即料約3萬至4萬億人民幣左右,料這將使內銀的不良貸款率增加1.5至2.1%。行業不良貸款率幾乎翻倍,從目前的1.7%上升到3-4%,不良貸款覆蓋率將從200%下降到約100%,這將是顯著的,但認為不是系統性風險。 如果僅考慮據內媒報道停滯的約270個項目,受影響的建築面積僅為約5,000萬平方米,完成這些項目所需的資金短缺僅為約1,000億元人民幣。如果擴大範圍,考慮到全國范圍內可能存在風險的項目,易居地產研究院估計暫停率為3.85%,總建築面積為2.31億平方米。相應的資金短缺將上升至約5,000億元人民幣。在極度悲觀的情況下,假設50%的開發商陷入困境,最終將有50%的項目暫停,受影響的總建築面積約為8.31億平方米,資金短缺為1萬億至2萬億人民幣。即使採取極端情況並假設資金短缺,指2萬億人民幣資金短缺,也可能會在地方政府、銀行以及潛在的供應商和中央政府之間分擔。
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