植耀輝: 恆指兩萬關拉鋸成交淡 本周焦點騰訊(00700.HK)業績
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股上周走勢仍較反覆,恆指一度失守19,500點水平,但最終仍能重上20,000點之上收市,收報20,175點,一周計微跌26點。不過成交相當淡靜,上周五(12日)全日成交僅得750億元,再創近期新低。
成份股中以李寧(02331.HK)表現最佳,上周累升7.3%,其上半年業績表現優於預期,帶動股價上周五急升4.8%。舜宇(02382.HK)股價亦造好,一周計累升近5%,蘋果iPhone 14消息對股價有正面支持,不過該股將於今日(15日)公布業績,由於早前已發盈警,故業績不抱期望,宜待管理層對下半年業績提供多些展望後再作部署。反而中資電訊股有不俗表現,中移動(00941.HK)及中聯通(00762.HK)中期業績兼派息有驚喜,刺激股價造好,兩者上周分別累升3.3%及4.3%。
不過內房股依然未見起色,雖然龍湖(00960.HK)已就票據逾期作澄清,大股東並宣布以股代息,但仍未能恢復投資者信心,龍湖全周便累跌達13.5%,碧桂園(02007.HK)亦跌超過一成,就連中海外(00688.HK)及潤地(01109.HK)亦累跌5.3%及4.6%。內地一日未有具體行動及措施,恐怕內房仍會捱沽,續不建議大家撈底。
由於整體市況仍未樂觀,加上今日內地將公布一系列經濟數據,騰訊(00700.HK)亦將於周三公布中期業績,除非業績有驚喜,否則騰訊弱勢將持續,大市亦會繼續維持拉鋸,並續於20,000點水平上落。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有中移動股份)
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恆指未出現見底信號 先觀望重磅股業績
耀才研究部稱,美股上周五(12日)全線向上,三大指數均升逾1%。展望本周,美國將公布7月零售數據及聯儲會議紀要,繼續關注聯儲加息步伐會否因近期經濟數據參差而改變,目前市場預計局方仍有50%機會率於9月份加息0.75厘。港股方面,內地上周公布7月社融7,561億人民幣,遜於預期的13,500億,令市場失去炒作憧憬;不過M1及M2數據報6.7%及12%,環比分別上升0.9及0.6個百分點,剪刀差收窄亦意味有更多資金重返投實體經濟。本周,重磅股騰訊(00700.HK)及港交所(00388.HK)業績來襲,同期亦有藥明生物(02269.HK)及一眾汽車股,預期市場波幅將會加大,上周末北水連續三天日均淨流入近10億元,對市況有支持作用,不過參考恆指5月底位反彈的情況,北水需要日均流入逾20億才有較樂觀的見底信號。
至於技術走勢方面,恆指雖重上10天線水平,MACD熊差亦有所收窄,惟走勢亦未見顯著改善,加上現時仍受制於下跌通道頂,約20,200點附近,須待進一步突破後走勢始有望轉佳。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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