瑞銀財管:短期看好中國非必需消費股、精選互聯網平台及分紅股 看淡亞洲高收益債
瑞銀財富管理亞太區投資總監辦公室發表報告指,亞洲(日本除外)股票6月初以來下跌約5%,主要因投資者擔憂經濟大幅放緩。亞洲股市從近期高點的回落幅度,堪比2011年歐洲債務危機、2015年中國經濟硬著陸擔憂以及2018年中美貿易摩擦時期。另由於擔心停貸事件演化為系統性風險,中國股票在7月回吐部份漲幅。不過,該行基準情景是,中國將能避免停貸事件引發系統性風險。
報告續稱,內地房地產銷售復甦進一步延遲。繼6月出現改善後,7月房地產銷售再次放緩。儘管這不會帶來系統性風險,但停貸風波繼續衝擊購房者和貸款人的情緒。
短期而言,該行看好中國的非必需消費品類股(包括運動服裝等)、精選中國互聯網平台、其他亞洲再通脹受益股等。報告對定價能力較弱的公司(尤其是必需消費品及工業領域)、周期性硬體與儲存公司以及尚未盈利的科技企業持謹慎看法。
此外,由於宏觀經濟放緩,報告看好具有充裕的自由現金流的精選分紅股,因其風險回報具吸引力。此類股票包括電訊、房地產信託基金(REITs)、部份銀行股以及消費類股票。
債券方面,亞洲高收益債回報率進一步深入負值區域。亞洲高收益債回報率進一步下降(年初以來下跌22%)。有關中國高收益債發行人的負面消息頻傳,近期停貸事件備受關注。報告認為,短期內亞洲高收益債的回報前景仍面臨挑戰。在基準情景下,預計未來六個月高收益債回報率為負1%至負3%。非中資板塊的估值已變得更具吸引力,但報告認為在宏觀環境改善前,這些債券也難以見到回升。
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