《大行報告》瑞信下調蒙牛(02319.HK)目標價至45元 評級「跑贏大市」
瑞信發表報告下調蒙牛(02319.HK)目標價,由48元降至45元,評級維持「跑贏大市」,認為股價已反映上半年疲弱業績。
該行料蒙牛上半年收入按年升3%,但盈利按年跌8%,又認為蒙牛相對同業伊利,在下半年面對的增長壓力更大,基於較弱的液態奶渠道銷售,超高溫消毒(UHT)乳酪銷售按年下滑及奶粉業務未見復甦跡象。在盈利率方面,料公司面臨貝拉米(Bellamy)及雅士利的進一步減值損失。
該行下調對蒙牛今明兩年盈利預測7%及4%,反映更高的一般與行政開支比率及下調銷售增長預期。該行亦認為,蒙牛估值要獲得市場重估,須先改善短期銷售增長、更新參品總類策略及對2025年「再創一個新蒙牛」目標有更清晰路線圖。
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