植耀輝: 變數多後市續反覆 恆指20,000點上落
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股上週走勢呈拉鋸,雖然一度受地緣緊張局勢而下試19,500點附近,但很快又出現反彈,並重上20,000點水平,最終恆指一週計微升45點,收報20,201點。不過成交依然淡靜,上週五(5日)全日成交只得851億元。反映投資者入市意欲相當低。事實上,港股仍受衆多因素困擾,包括臺海局勢、內地疫情、房企債務問題及經濟數據表現、本地上市公司業績、歐美經濟衰退陰霾及加息等,不過大部分因素相信已作反映,惟在缺乏利好消息支持下,大市上升亦告乏力,在此等情況下,後市暫亦難有所突破,預期將繼續於20,000點上落。
至於股份表現,汽車股上週普遍上升,吉利(00175.HK)便成爲成份股中表現最好股份,累升超過15%,另一車股比亞迪(01211.HK)升幅則爲2%。手機設備股亦造好,受蘋果iPhone14消息刺激,舜宇(02382.HK)反彈超過10.6%,不過另一手機股瑞聲(02018.HK)則依然未見太大起色,僅微升0.1%。芯片股亦受追捧,市場對芯片國產化之憧憬增加,中芯(00981.HK)便升超過9%。
不過內房股依然未見太大起色,碧服(06098)及碧桂園(02007.HK)繼續捱沽,兩者本週再跌超過一成,碧服跌幅更達到16%。值得一提的是油股,上週油價回落,拖累股股亦向下,中海油(00883.HK)中石油(00857.HK)便分別下跌4.9%及6%。不過筆者對油價依然正面,故續建議持有,並伺機再作吸納作中長線部署。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,持有中海油股份)
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恆指需要升穿20,462點才能打破下跌軌道
耀才研究部稱,上週五(5日)美股收市個別發展,7月非農業職位勁增52.8萬個,遠超預期的25萬個,強勁的就業數據意味美聯儲很難放慢加息步伐,9月份仍然有超過一半的機會率加息0.75釐,科網股普遍走弱。展望本週,美國將公佈重要通脹數據CPI,市場預計將按年上升8.7%,較前值有所回落,留意數據如何影響加息預期以及科網股的走勢。港股方面,黑期預示恆指再度回試20,000回大關,由於上週未能突破10天線水平,指數仍然屬於浪低於浪的格局。
技術上,恆指反彈時已受壓於10天線水平,需留意恆指多條月線向下移,發出多個死亡交叉,走勢仍屬利淡,指數需要突破20天線即20,462點才能突破下跌軌道。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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