植耀輝: 科技股表現出色美股揚 港股不明朗因素多
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股上周表現出色,在憧憬美國加息步伐將放慢,加上個別科技股業績勝預期,刺激上周五(7月29日)美股大幅造好,納指上升1.9%,道指及標普500指數亦分別上升近1%及1.4%。若以整個7月份計,道指累升6.7%,標普500指數累升近一成,納指升幅更達到12.4%。
至於港股,上周表現強差人意,在新經濟股拖累下,恆指一周下跌452點或2.2%,科指跌幅更達到5.8%。整個7月計,恆指未能延續5、6月份升勢,累跌1,703點或7.8%。科指表現則更差,累跌539點或11.1%。成份股表現亦榮辱互見。成份股中東方海外(00316.HK)累積升幅最大,全月計累升達到31.3%,其次為石藥(01093.HK)及信義光能(00968.HK),兩者分別累升超過10%。不過內房股表現卻相當「慘烈」。碧桂園(02007.HK)及碧桂園服務(06098.HK)分別大跌37.7%及50%,另一內房股龍湖集團(00960.HK)亦大跌26.32%。至於央企背景之中海外(00688.HK)及潤地(01109.HK)亦未能倖免,前者累跌12.7%,後者跌幅亦超過一成。
新經濟股雖然未及內房「慘烈」,但表現之差亦令大家大失所望。騰訊(00700.HK)、阿里-SW(09988.HK)、美團-W(03690.HK)及京東-SW(09618.HK)上周跌幅便介乎5.34%至8.8%。
由於市場氣氛仍審慎,同時上周五美國證券交易委員會(SEC)亦將阿里等4間中概股公司納入可能除牌名單,消息短期料會繼續困擾阿里股價表現。加上本周開始本地將踏入業績公布期,今日(8月1日)便有匯控(00005.HK)及恆生(00011.HK),同時中美關係亦受市場關注。在眾多因素影響下,預期恆指或將進一步受壓,有機會進一步下試19,200點水平。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有東方海外股份)
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恆指下一個支持位於5月中的頸線位置19,800點
耀才研究部稱,美股連續三日向上,上周五(29日)納指表現最好升近2%。展望本周,美國將公布7月重磅非農業職位數據,預期增加25萬個;另外ISM製造業指數以及聯儲官員的講話亦值得關注。自從美國連續兩季出現倒退後,市場預期聯儲終端利率將會於3.3厘見頂,較兩周前的3.6厘有所回落,支持股市走勢。港股方面,中國7月製造業PMI從6月的50.2降至49.0,遜於預期的50.3;阿里-SW(09988.HK)亦被美國SEC納入將會從美股除牌的中企名單,ADS股價較港股再跌近6%,將拖累恆指再度跌穿20000大關。匯控(00005.HK)今日(8月1日)公布業績,先留意銀行板塊。
技術上,恆指上周五於成交擴大下跌穿20,500點即市支持,指數於7月中後期一直維持約500點上落波幅,即恆指將下試20,000點關口,同時指數已跌穿月內低位,沿保力加通道低軸順延的機會較大,下一個支持位於5月中的頸線位置19,800點。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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