摩通料歐元區明年初陷溫和衰退 料下半年歐央行合共只加息半厘
摩根大通(JPM.US)警告,天然氣危機以及意大利政局動盪將令歐元區明年初陷溫和衰退,並限制歐洲央行的加息能力。
摩通預計歐元區本季經濟增長將放緩至0.5%,然後在第四季及明年首季收縮0.5%,預計歐洲央行將在9月及10月各加息四分一厘,放棄12月再加息四分一厘的預測。
摩通稱,最新的預測是天然氣價格為每兆瓦時150歐元,再加上意大利等國所帶來的壓力,足以對歐元區國內生產總值(GDP)帶來2%的衝擊,同時高油價還將在短期內推高整體通脹1.2個百分點,到明年通脹率將再次下降,從而降低歐洲央行加息的幅度。
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