You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
網易-S(09999.HK):《暗黑》國服上線 遊戲全球化部署持續推進
業績預覽我們預測2Q22 Non-GAAP淨利潤同比增長17%至49 億元網易預計將於8 月下旬發佈2Q22 業績,我們預計公司2Q22 收入同增12%至230 億元,一致預期230 億元;Non-GAAP淨利潤同增17%至49億元,一致預期48 億元。原定於6 月23 日國服上線的重磅遊戲《暗黑破壞神:不朽》於今日(7 月25 日)上線,我們認為關於該遊戲延期的負面因素解除。關注要點頭部經典遊戲穩健運營,部分存量產品流水回升;《暗黑》海外上線貢獻增量,國服上線穩固下半年收入。公司頭部經典遊戲《夢幻西遊》等流水2Q22 整體穩定,部分次新遊實現流水回升:《無盡的拉格朗日》(2021 年8月上線)通過玩法創新、科學買量與營銷等使6 月國內iOS暢銷榜排名環比提升超過20 位至第9 名,實現流水回升,彰顯了公司對存量產品的持續迭代運營能力。新遊戲方面,公司與暴雪聯合開發的《暗黑破壞神:不朽》於6 月上線歐美等地區、7 月8 日登陸泛亞太地區,並進入第二賽季;根據七麥數據,截至7 月24 日,《暗黑破壞神:不朽》位居中國港澳台地區、新馬地區等iOS遊戲暢銷榜前五。隨着國服上線,我們預計其流水將為公司Q3收入創造貢獻。此外,《永劫無間》主機版於6 月23 日登陸Xbox,我們亦提示年內靜候《哈利波特》海外版等產品上線貢獻流水增量。預期雲音樂2Q22 保持較快增速。雲音樂方面,我們預計2Q22 雲音樂同增27.7%至21.6 億元,其中,在線音樂中訂閲業務增速有望達到35%+;毛利率水平方面,整體維持環比平穩趨勢。有道及創新業務方面,考慮到疫情對電商倉儲物流、硬件製造等影響,我們認為業務有所承壓,其中有道因去年同期K9 業務等具有相對高基數,下滑幅度或相對較大。費用端相對穩定,遊戲全球化研發投入持續,海外新設第一方工作室。我們預期公司研發投入持續,尤其在全球化人才積累方面將保持積極投入。根據公吿,公司7 月在美國成立新一家3A第一方工作室Jar of Sparks,專注於創造下一代以敍事驅動的動作遊戲。此前公司曾於今年5 月在北美設立第一方工作室Jackalope Games,併為蒙特利爾工作室新納首席製作人EmileLIANG。綜合利潤率方面,我們預計公司2Q22 毛利率為54%,基本維持穩定;預計2Q22Non-GAAP淨利潤49 億元,對應Non-GAAP淨利潤率為21%。我們預期公司匯兑損益、投資收益等或對淨利潤有正向影響。盈利預測與估值維持盈利預測、跑贏行業評級及基於SOTP估值法的目標價港股210 港元/美股134 美元,港/美股對應30 倍2022 年Non-GAAP P/E,上行空間分別為39%/41%。港/美股當前均分別交易於2022/2023 年21/18 倍Non-GAAP P/E。風險宏觀經濟及疫情影響,監管政策趨嚴,遊戲表現不及預期,成本費用超預期。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account