美國通脹：這次是頂嗎？
美國2022年6月CPI同比9.1%，高於預期的8.8%；核心CPI同比5.9%，略高於預期的5.7%；CPI環比1.3%高於預期的1.1%和前值的1%。對於再次超預期的CPI數據，我們的解讀如下：
整體CPI：能源拉動下同比繼續走高。6月CPI同比9.1%，大幅超預期並創下1981年以來的新高，其中能源分項的拉動貢獻超過3%。6月WTI油價大幅上漲，在此基礎上，本輪成品油漲幅較原油價格更高，使得CPI中的能源商品與上月相比漲幅超過10個百分點，其中汽油上漲幅度11.2%，電力、燃氣等替代能源費用均較上期有所上行。
核心CPI：同比確認下行趨勢，商品貢獻持續收窄。3月以來，核心通脹同比持續回落。拆分來看，6月數據符合我們此前多次強調的「從商品到服務的切換」：商品貢獻收窄，而房租爲代表的服務貢獻上升。以二手車爲例：6月二手車價格有所下降，且二手車價格同比年初以來持續下行也帶動了CPI分項中新車及二手車分項同比的大幅下行。
市場反應：股債雙殺疊加加息預期上行，市場繼續緊縮交易。數據公佈後，市場對2022年全年加息預期從323bp升至338bp——其中7、9月加息幅度預期從原來的75bp和50bp預期基礎上均走高；通脹預期驅動10年期美債利率快速上行12bp至3.07%；美股低開，納斯達克跌幅超1.6%。
展望：商品需求回落預期繼續拉動核心通脹下行，整體通脹取決於油價。往後看，商品消費透支、財政餘韻退燒，疊加聯儲緊縮和通脹衝擊，PCE實際商品消費量同比自4月以來持續處於負值區間，預期將成爲核心通脹下行的主要拉動力。
7月1日至13日，在衰退預期和美元走強的雙重影響下，WTI油價跌幅超過15%，同時成品油和原油的價差也開始收斂，如果後續油價不超預期大幅反彈，則整體CPI同比應該後續也將回落。
高通脹壓力下，聯儲最優解爲「長痛不如短痛」，年內加息路徑仍陡峭。正如我們在6月FOMC會議點評《聯儲加息75bp：分析、影響、展望》中闡述，雖然經濟已顯疲態，但對整體通脹的持續性和聯儲的鷹派不宜低估。對於聯儲而言，最優選擇是利用經濟仍有韌性的窗口期快速收緊，以更陡峭的加息路徑爲後續的貨幣政策打開空間。從當前到7月FOMC會議前，市場的交易邏輯可能會進一步從前期的「衰退交易」向「緊縮交易」切換。
風險提示：通脹持續性超預期， 聯儲貨幣政策收緊超預期。
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