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美國CPI今晚重磅來襲:整體CPI料再強勁攀升,核心環比CPI或傳降溫信號

經濟學家們預測,美國6月份通脹繼續升溫至新的高點,同比大漲8.8%,環比大漲1.1%。不過,不包括能源和食品的核心CPI在6月份可能有所降溫,美聯儲有望因此轉向更緩和加息的進程。

據媒體調查,經濟學家們預測,週三公佈的美國CPI報告將顯示,受汽油價格推動,6月份通脹繼續升溫至新的高點,同比大漲8.8%,環比大漲1.1%,這意味着美聯儲7月會議上再次大幅加息幾成定局。

倘若週三數據如預期,那麼8.8%的同比漲幅將續創1981年以來的最大漲幅,而1.1%的環比漲幅將是過去四個月中通脹率第三個月上漲至少1%。

不過,不包括能源和食品的核心CPI在6月份可能有所降溫,市場預計環比上漲0.5%,是三個月來的最小漲幅。

CPI漲幅或加速,源於汽油價格上漲和食品成本攀升。美國汽油價格在6月期間在相當高位的水平,一度在6月中旬突破創紀錄的每加侖5美元,這將使整體CPI的月度漲幅至少增加0.5個百分點。

美國汽油價格近日有所回落,表明CPI數據有望從7月開始緩慢下降。全球經濟衰退擔憂引發油價連續大跌,布油和美油紛紛落入技術性熊市,這意味着能源領域的通脹將有所緩解。此外,由於零售類庫存激增導致折扣變多,和二手車價格的走軟,相關通脹也會降溫。

今年的美國通脹數據至關重要,因爲這決定了美聯儲未來的加息路徑。雖然美聯儲7月加息75個基點大局已定,但之後會議的加息情況仍存變數。美聯儲官員們表示,在7月之後可以將加息步伐放慢至半個百分點,但他們希望看到令人信服的證據表明通脹正在放緩,然後再轉向更傳統的25個百分點加息。

Yardeni Research總裁Ed Yardeni的預計符合經濟學家們的上述預估均值,他表示,“壞消息”將再來到來,通脹將再創新高。工資較低的工人是受到通脹擠壓最嚴重的階層,他們別無選擇,只能將大部分預算分配給“食品、燃料和租金”等必需品。工資較高的工人也受到通脹的擠壓,但他們可能有更多的儲蓄,並且可以隨時削減非必需消費項目,這也是導致最近經濟疲軟的原因。

通脹見解公司(Inflation Insights)創始人Omair Sharif表示,“如果6月份是較低的核心CPI數據的開始,那麼這是美聯儲希望看到的,我認爲美聯儲官員們的評論將很快轉向9月份加息50個基點,並且有更多人呼籲在今年晚些時候放緩至25個基點的加息。”

有“新美聯儲通訊社”之稱的華爾街日報記者Nick Timiraos表示,住房領域可以爲通脹提供更多動力,因此需要其他領域的價格大幅下降,才能看到美國整體通脹的下降。上漲的住房成本將使今年的通脹保持在高位,這給美聯儲官員們帶來了挑戰,因爲在放緩加息步伐之前,他們希望看到價格壓力正在緩解的跡象。

德意志銀行的經濟學家們在一份報告中表示,如果未來幾個月通脹指標沒有像預期的那樣下降,這可能導致美聯儲貨幣政策立場進行更痛苦的調整。這將增加衰退風險,因爲更大更快的加息會對需求造成更大的損失。

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