植耀輝: 恆指仍看22,500點目標 騰訊(00700.HK)股價難有憧憬
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,恆指昨日(27日)急升510點或2.4%,科指升幅更達到4.7%,急升原因除了上周五(24日)美股造好外,投資者繼續憧憬內地或會宣傳一系列惠港措施,當中包括將第二上市之中概股納入互聯互通範圍之內。雖然未知是否屬實,但港交所(00388.HK)股價急升是不爭事實,股價上升7%,收報400.2元。不過騰訊(00700.HK)則因大股東Naspers宣布有意於場內減持,股價昨日逆市下跌1.6%,收報378.2元。由於大市已升至筆者早前定下之22,500點水平,加上本輪升勢其實亦頗急,而隔晚美股亦未能延續反彈,預期港股將暫於現水平上落,上方阻力仍繼續先看22,500點。
亦要分享騰訊被Nasper減持一事之看法。現時Nasper仍持有騰訊28.8%股權,以騰訊昨日收市價計,其持有騰訊之市值達到1.048萬億元,即使減持其持股之一成,股份價值亦已超過千億元,所以通過配股減持之方式難度頗高之餘,對股價之衝擊可能更大。而透過在場內減持,雖然影響可能較少,但影響卻較長遠,而且由於不設上限,意味未來股價上升,將成為Nasper減持之誘因。恐怕要到Nasper宣布結束減持行動後,騰訊股價才有望反彈,所以暫不建議投資者吸納矣!
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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恆指形成浪高於浪走勢 後市樂觀
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(27日)美股偏軟,美國10年期債息由上周低位3厘重新爬上3.2厘,影響了股市的走勢。早前看淡美股的大摩(MS.US)認為,此輪反彈將持續數周,直至最近一季季績期完結為止。金龍中國指數輕微回吐,新經濟股連升多日後開始回調整固,ADR預示恆指將回試22,000點支持。昨日北水流入42億元人民幣,續創自6月16日的最大流量,臨近香港回歸加上季結的情況下,指數仍然有機會重返4月高位。美國白宮指美國總統拜登和中國國家主席習近平預計將在未來數周內進行談話,將成為下一個利好催化劑。
技術上,恆指突破100天線阻力,MACD出現明顯牛信號,RSI以及成交量同樣有所配合,盤中高見22,414點,形成自5月起浪高於浪的格局,恆指回調後仍然有機會創出季內新高。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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