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《即日市評》憂經濟前景 恆指倒跌 教育股炒上
受科網股及友邦(01299.HK)等拖累下,恆指今日先升後回,失守兩萬一關。歐央行向高負債南歐國家債券再投資,避免爆發債務危機,而美聯儲局加息0.75厘符合預期,加息幅度為28年以來最大,聯儲局主席鮑威爾稱加息0.75厘不太可能成為常態;執筆之時美國十年期國債孳息率跌至3.39厘,瑞士央行出乎預期加息半厘為2015年來首次,美匯指數升至105.26,美股道指期貨最新跌424點或1.38%,納指期貨最新跌2.3%。摩通亞洲區貨幣指數跌0.55%至102.7,人民幣即期收升33點報6.7162兌一美元,上證綜指今日跌20點或0.6%收3,285點,深證成指升0.1%,滬深兩市成交額共1.08萬億人民幣。 市場擔心全球經濟前景,港股今日向下。恆指高開207點後回落,尾市曾跌610點一度低見20,697點,全日跌462點或2.17%,收20,845點;國指跌193點或2.6%,收7,259點;恆生科技指數跌156點或3.33%,收4,547點。大市全日成交總額1,584.86億元,滬、深港通南下交易分別淨流入15.88億及19.15億元人民幣。科網股弱,騰訊(00700.HK)跌3.2%。 【憂累經濟前景 恆指失兩萬一】 銀行股走個別,匯控(00005.HK)股價跌0.2%收49.8元,渣打(02888.HK)股價漲0.8%,中銀香港(02388.HK)股價升0.5%。中金發表報告指,美聯儲加息75個基點,為1994年以來首次,顯示貨幣緊縮的急迫性。隨著美聯儲官員大幅上調加息預測,料本輪聯邦基金利率高點或超4%。 中金認為,不宜低估美國利率上行空間,對美國經濟前景則需要保持謹慎。一種可能是美聯儲持續的緊縮引發經濟衰退,並以此為代價換取物價穩定,而這也將加劇市場波動,帶來更高的風險溢價。該行認為接下來美聯儲會盡全力對抗通脹,如果需要一場經濟衰退來換取物價穩定,美聯儲可能也會選擇這樣做。 【下跌股千二隻 新東方在線彈】 港股今日市寬轉弱,主板股票的升跌比率為11比30(上日23比17),下跌股份1,264隻(跌幅2.7%),恆指成份股今日6隻股份上升,下跌股份60隻,升跌比率為8比87(上日為55比43);大市今日錄沽空266.57億元,佔可沽空股份成交額1,353.58億元的19.693%(上日為18.766%)。 部份中資教育股逆市炒上,新東方在線(01797.HK)旗下「東方甄選」抖音直播間截至今日下午錄粉絲逾1,027萬名,近日粉絲大幅增長,新東方在線全日股價飆升72.7%收28.6元,但新東方(09901.HK)股價反覆跌2%,天立教育(01773.HK)股價抽升105%,希望教育(01765.HK)股價漲6.7%。 中信証券近日發表報告表示,從近期「東方甄選」的爆發,讓該行看到了教育培訓(教培)公司一次成功的轉型,背後體現的是教培公司長期積累的內容和組織能力的復用,多數教培公司轉型效果也在逐漸體現,料未來亦有望貢獻良好的表現。該行指,內地其他教培公司的轉型也紛紛在進行中,伴隨競爭回歸理性,各公司盈利模型也在不斷優化,有望逐步迎來常態化盈利。
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