《大行報告》高盛:內房業最壞情況或已過去 但現時難判斷何時明顯復甦
高盛發表研究報告指出,內房業最壞情況或已過去,但現時難判斷何時明顯復甦。過去兩周,該行續觀察到地方政府房地產市場政策的規模、力度及覆蓋範圍都在加大。根據克而瑞數據,今年首五個月內地超過130個城市或直轄市已推出逾320項寬鬆政策,尤其是單計5月份近80個城市錄得超過140項寬鬆政策。
該行留意到至目前為止,寬鬆政策主要集中在需求側,如杭州、南京及太原等18個二線強城市於5月份放寬限購令;寬鬆政策更具針對性及目標性,以支持潛在需求,特別針對於多子女的家庭及人才方面;更多創新形式放寬購房資格限制,如成都在5月底嘗試將出租物業排除在住房所有權計算中;一些逆轉措施以強化「房住不抄」的立場,如南京取消二手房限售令在公告當日被召回等。
不過,該行認為雖然迄今為止採取所有寬鬆措施,但在其每周追蹤的超過80個城市中,並無看到任何有意義的銷售刺激措施。同時,該行覆蓋的發展商中,5月份預售按年跌55%,而4月份為61%。此外,該行續看到低線城市面臨更大的庫存及銷售壓力。
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