IDC:下調今年全球智能手機出貨量預測至按年跌3.5%
市場研究公司IDC數據顯示,在全球不確定性及需求疲弱的情況下,對今年全球智能手機出貨量預測,由原先預期的增長1.6%,下調至跌3.5%,至13.1億部。但預期短期倒退過後,隨著市場反彈,於2026年的5年年均複合增長率達1.9%。
從區域來看,預計今年中歐和東歐的智能手機出貨量降幅最大,料將下跌22%。中國將跌11.5%,約佔今年全球出貨量跌幅的八成。西歐預計將跌1%,而大部分其他地區今年將出現正增長,包括亞太地區(不包括日本和中國)增長3%,是僅次於中國的第二大地區。
此外,受中國5G產品渠道庫存增加及市場預測整體下調的影響,IDC對今年5G設備出貨量預測大幅下調,料將按年增長25.5%,平均售價為608美元。長遠而言,預計2026年5G設備銷量份額將達至78%,平均售價為440美元。而智能手機均價將由2022年的402美元,跌至2026年的366美元。
IDC認為,智能手機行業面臨來自多方面的不利因素有所增加,包括需求疲弱、通脹、持續的地緣政治緊張局勢及持續的供應鏈限制。不過,中國「封城」的影響仍未明朗,所帶來的影響或更大,許多代工生產商已削減今年的訂單。除非出現任何新的不利因素,否則IDC預期有關的挑戰將於今年得到緩解,市場將在2023年出現復甦,屆時全球智能手機出貨量料將增長5%。
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