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惠譽:各類建材中 水泥最易受氣候風險影響
評級機構惠譽表示,由於水泥生產直接排放溫室氣體,排放量大且不易減排,需要採用昂貴的脫碳技術,因而是建材與建築部門中最易受到遠期氣候風險影響的行業。儘管生產其他重型建材(如骨料和混凝土)的環境影響亦較高,但其溫室氣體的直接排放量遠遠低於水泥生產,因此受到的影響較小。建材分銷及工程施工行業因直接排放量低、政策風險中等或偏低、主要需求驅動因素穩定,是整個部門中受影響最小的行業。 惠譽認為,水泥生產所產生的溫室氣體約佔全球碳排放總量的8%,其中大部分的溫室氣體為生產過程中所產生。因此,為達成氣候目標,未來幾十年需要對生產方式實施重大變革。若要實現水泥生產的脫碳,需要大幅改進營運水平,以及進行重大技術創新,這將導致成本上升、投資增加,並對既有業務模式造成衝擊。根據《聯合國負責任投資原則2021年氣候政策預期情景》,目前主要創新領域包括碳固化混凝土、新一代水泥以及碳收集與儲存技術,這些創新將為減排帶來最大的可能性。 此外,惠譽指由於具有間接排放風險,建築施工板塊需要在整個項目生命周期內採取有效的氣候策略,並提高對供應鏈氣候影響的重視。該板塊的企業將需要重新考慮建築和基礎設施的設計與施工方式,包括材料的選擇、資源效率及循環使用材料方面的挑戰。這使得該些公司需要將氣候風險納入供應鏈和採購決策中。惠譽預計,該行業有望增加可再生能源使用,減少燃料消耗以及實現交通運輸車輛的電氣化。
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