《大行報告》大摩:中央金融政策重點轉向製造業 料招行等受惠 降交行及信行等評級
摩根士丹利發表報告,隨着中國政府系列政策,包括監管重置和金融清理等措施,已將中國的金融體系重新導向鼓勵製造業。預計隨着時間的推移,料信貸增長和不良貸款的週期將更加波動,利率和信貸需求更具韌性,但資本市場表現會有所放緩。
該行認爲,內地有意將政策重點轉向製造業,估計將影響未來5至10年的金融市場發展和金融週期,指中國自2020年底以來的監管重置,加上自2016年以來進行金融清理,以遏制房地產出現泡沫風險的持續政策,以及稅收改革和地方政府債務等政策的變化,可能會導致金融業和其他資源向製造業傾斜。
大摩認爲,未來金融市場發展有利於零售銀行;但對不良貸款覆蓋率較低的券商和以企業爲中心的銀行則不太樂觀:如果政策轉變能夠成功支持製造業持續升級和發展,該行認爲這將有助於支持可持續的長期中小企及低收入家庭收入增長。
該行料興業銀行(601166.SH)、平安銀行(000001.SZ)及招行(03968.HK)料可受惠政府政策轉變,指相關銀行具質素以迎接未來數年挑戰。而大摩表示下調對交行(03328.HK)、中信銀行(00998.HK)及重慶銀行(01963.HK)評級均至「減持」,並調低對光大銀行(06818.HK)評級至「與大市同步」。
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