小米集團一季報前瞻：受經濟放緩負面衝擊
1Q22預覽：智能手機需求疲軟以及多重外部不利因素
來源 | 華泰證券 科技與電子首席分析師 黃樂平
我們預計小米1Q22收入和非GAAP口徑淨利潤或分別同比降5%和55%，其中智能手機收入同比降10%，物聯網和互聯網業務收入同比增長5%/8%。根據IDC數據，1Q22小米的智能手機出貨量爲3,990萬部（同比-17.8%）。受經濟疲軟、疫情期間封控和物流不暢以及地緣政治動盪等不利因素影響，我們注意到小米1Q22全球智能手機出貨量倒退。然而，由於產品結構調整，小米較高的產品均價部分抵消了出貨量疲軟的影響。考慮到競爭加劇和小米的去庫存舉措，我們預計其智能手機毛利率或達到10%左右。我們將小米2022/2023/2024年非GAAP口徑下EPS預測調整爲人民幣0.61/0.82/0.88元。維持“買入”評級，下調基於SOTP的目標價至16.00港幣（前值22.00港幣）。
多重不利因素和高基數拖累1Q22業績
根據IDC數據，1Q22小米智能手機出貨量同比下降17.8%，市場份額同比下降1.4個百分點至12.7%。我們認爲1H22公司將面臨多重不利因素，包括：1）海外高通脹影響低端智能手機需求；2）深圳、上海等城市的疫情影響內地需求和供應鏈；3）地緣政治動盪也導致東歐市場智能手機和AIoT（人工智能物聯網）產品需求疲軟。我們將2022年小米智能手機出貨量預測下調10%至1.8億部，預計海外AIoT產品出貨量持平，因而將智能手機/AIoT/互聯網業務收入下調8%/10%/1%至人民幣2,109億/901億/302億元。
穩健經營，持續投資築韌性
考慮到各種不利因素及創新節奏放緩，我們對短期內消費電子產品需求持更爲謹慎的態度，尤其是安卓智能手機。但我們也看到小米在以下方面的努力：1）在芯片短缺和經濟疲軟的背景下，優化產品結構以提升均價及互聯網服務收入，2）擴大其AIoT業務的產品類別和市場份額；3）持續投資其電動汽車業務。我們預計1Q22小米電動汽車研發支出約人民幣4億元。我們認爲小米的穩健經營將助力公司在整體疲軟的市場中維持業績韌性，並打造長期增長潛力。
維持“買入”，下調目標價至16.00港幣
考慮到智能手機需求疲軟，我們將小米2022/2023/2024年非GAAP口徑下EPS預測調整爲人民幣0.61/0.82/0.88元（前值：人民幣0.88/0.91/1.0元）。我們維持“買入”評級，下調基於SOTP的目標價至16.00港幣（前值22.00港幣），對應23倍2022年預測PE。
風險提示：新冠疫情影響和芯片短缺可能會影響智能手機銷售和需求。
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