小米集团一季报前瞻：受经济放缓负面冲击
1Q22预览：智能手机需求疲软以及多重外部不利因素
来源 | 华泰证券 科技与电子首席分析师 黄乐平
我们预计小米1Q22收入和非GAAP口径净利润或分别同比降5%和55%，其中智能手机收入同比降10%，物联网和互联网业务收入同比增长5%/8%。根据IDC数据，1Q22小米的智能手机出货量为3,990万部（同比-17.8%）。受经济疲软、疫情期间封控和物流不畅以及地缘政治动荡等不利因素影响，我们注意到小米1Q22全球智能手机出货量倒退。然而，由于产品结构调整，小米较高的产品均价部分抵消了出货量疲软的影响。考虑到竞争加剧和小米的去库存举措，我们预计其智能手机毛利率或达到10%左右。我们将小米2022/2023/2024年非GAAP口径下EPS预测调整为人民币0.61/0.82/0.88元。维持“买入”评级，下调基于SOTP的目标价至16.00港币（前值22.00港币）。
多重不利因素和高基数拖累1Q22业绩
根据IDC数据，1Q22小米智能手机出货量同比下降17.8%，市场份额同比下降1.4个百分点至12.7%。我们认为1H22公司将面临多重不利因素，包括：1）海外高通胀影响低端智能手机需求；2）深圳、上海等城市的疫情影响内地需求和供应链；3）地缘政治动荡也导致东欧市场智能手机和AIoT（人工智能物联网）产品需求疲软。我们将2022年小米智能手机出货量预测下调10%至1.8亿部，预计海外AIoT产品出货量持平，因而将智能手机/AIoT/互联网业务收入下调8%/10%/1%至人民币2,109亿/901亿/302亿元。
稳健经营，持续投资筑韧性
考虑到各种不利因素及创新节奏放缓，我们对短期内消费电子产品需求持更为谨慎的态度，尤其是安卓智能手机。但我们也看到小米在以下方面的努力：1）在芯片短缺和经济疲软的背景下，优化产品结构以提升均价及互联网服务收入，2）扩大其AIoT业务的产品类别和市场份额；3）持续投资其电动汽车业务。我们预计1Q22小米电动汽车研发支出约人民币4亿元。我们认为小米的稳健经营将助力公司在整体疲软的市场中维持业绩韧性，并打造长期增长潜力。
维持“买入”，下调目标价至16.00港币
考虑到智能手机需求疲软，我们将小米2022/2023/2024年非GAAP口径下EPS预测调整为人民币0.61/0.82/0.88元（前值：人民币0.88/0.91/1.0元）。我们维持“买入”评级，下调基于SOTP的目标价至16.00港币（前值22.00港币），对应23倍2022年预测PE。
风险提示：新冠疫情影响和芯片短缺可能会影响智能手机销售和需求。
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