You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行報告》中金:港匯走弱 料對港股影響相對有限 但地產股或邊際承壓
中金髮表報告表示,近期美元持續走強引發一系列連鎖反應,除人民幣快速走弱一度突破6.8外,港元也觸發7.85弱方保證,促使香港金管局5月12日入市以維持港幣匯率穩定,這也是2019年以來的首次。該行指,金管局入市是聯繫匯率機制下的正常操作,當港元觸及7.85弱方兌換保證時,金管局購入銀行系統港元,導致貨幣基礎收縮(金管局賬戶總結餘減少),這意味銀行間港元流動性收緊,推動Hibor擡升從而緩解匯率壓力,反之亦然。金管局5月6日最新數據顯示,香港外匯儲備4,657億美元,是流通中貨幣的6倍。 中金指往前看,在通脹仍有粘性的環境下,美聯儲緊縮將是未來一段時間的強約束,短期內難以逆轉,美元流動性收緊和金管局跟隨美聯儲加息、Hibor利率走高也將是大概率情形,這進而不排除仍會給港元造成一定壓力。參考2015年至2018年美聯儲加息週期,香港銀行總結餘由2015年末的4,200億港元降至2019年初的590億港幣,同期1個月Hibor從0.22%上升至2%以上。當前總結餘約爲3,300億港幣,不排除仍有回落空間。 該行認爲,單純香港利率上行和港元走弱並非港股的主導因素。1985年以來數據顯示,1月Hibor與恆指月度收益的相關性僅爲-7%,與恆生國企指數相關性爲11%。由於港股市場中資公司佔到相當比例,因此香港自身的金融條件對於港股整體的影響並非單一主導因素,相比之下國內增長和基本面狀況更爲重要,以2017年爲例,即便面臨美聯儲加息和縮表、港幣整體走弱且Hibor擡升,但海外資金依然持續流入,推動人民幣走強和港股市場大漲。板塊層面,由於樣本較少沒有確定性的一致規律,更多還是有當時基本面環境和行業中觀環境決定。 中金亦指,香港加息和利率走高或使本地地產邊際承壓。聯繫匯率機制下,金管局跟隨美聯儲加息以及Hibor大概率繼續走高,將會提升香港本地的部分融資成本,進而可能對本地房地產融資帶來部分壓力。據2021年12月調查顯示,香港97.2%的新發住房抵押貸款與Hibor利率掛鉤,1個月的Hibor是住房貸款主要基準。而該行亦指更高的利率環境可能提振本港銀行股的利潤空間。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account