《大行報告》阿里巴巴(09988.HK)投資評級及目標價(表)
阿里巴巴(09988.HK)將於下周四(26日)公布截至2022年3月底止全年度(2022財年)業績。受新冠疫情影響下,深圳及上海等城市疫情反覆拖累其核心電商的交付履約,令核心商業及雲服務等多項業務均面臨較大的壓力、估計旗下社區電商「淘菜菜」本季虧損按年有所加大,本網綜合13間券商預測,阿里巴巴截至2022年3月底止全財年(2022財年)非公認會計準則淨利潤料介乎1,308.08億至1,377.07億元人民幣,較2021財年同期1,719.85億元人民幣,按年下跌19.9%至23.9%;中位數1,336.68億元人民幣,按年減少22.3%。
綜合15間券商預測,阿里巴巴截至2022年3月底止全財年(2022財年)歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤料介乎708.59億至907.63億元人民幣,較2021財年同期1,503.08億元人民幣,按年下跌39.6%至52.9%;中位數797.15億元人民幣,按年跌47%。
市場將關注阿里巴巴旗下核心業務客戶管理收入(CMR)與商品交易總額(GMV)增長之間的差距及未來趨勢會否收窄,而花旗預期投資者關注淘菜菜虧損與最新業務策略和進展,公司對商戶支援措施的影響,核心商業及國際零售的競爭情況及監管等最新指引。
下表列出22間券商對阿里巴巴(09988.HK)評級及目標價:
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
富瑞│買入│268元
星展│買入│182元
高盛│買入│180元
美銀證券│買入│171元
安信証券│買入│165元
招商證券國際│買入│162元
國海証券│買入│162元
交銀國際│買入│161元
中金│跑贏行業│161元
中信証券│買入│160元
瑞信│跑贏大市│158元
大和│買入│155元
匯豐環球研究│買入│152元
建銀國際│跑贏大市│149.4元
中銀國際│買入│145元
中信建投│買入│142元
瑞銀│買入│136元
工銀國際│跑贏大市│132元
大華繼顯│買入│130元
國泰君安証券│收集│121元
摩根大通│減持│63元
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