對美聯儲的預期是“打破歷史”?市場博弈利率定價已到2024年
目前的市場定價與美聯儲將不惜一切代價對抗通脹的觀點並不一致。
彭博數據顯示,投資者預計美國CPI將從4月8.3%的同比增速下降至12月的5.86%,到2023年底跌至4.09%,但這仍遠高於美聯儲的預期。
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與此同時,交易員預計聯邦基金利率明年將在略低於3%的水平見頂,並在2024年開始下降。換句話說,市場預計美聯儲將以-1%的實際利率結束本輪緊縮週期。
然而,在現代歷史上,這種情況從未發生過。正如加拿大帝國商業銀行北美外匯策略主管Bipan Rai所說的那樣,美聯儲只在實際利率轉爲正值時才停止收緊政策。
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對此有兩種解釋。第一種解釋是定價有誤。最終利率預期過低,或者通脹預期過高。
第二種解釋是,投資者可能認爲2%的通脹目標已經成爲過去。隨着美國經濟進入下一個下行週期,通脹走高成爲板上釘釘的事實,美聯儲將不得不把其通脹目標從2%提高到3%或更高水平。
從鮑威爾週五的講話中,我們可以得知第二種解釋的可能性較小。
上週三美聯儲會後公佈二十二年來首度一次大幅加息50個基點,美聯儲主席鮑威爾一週後重申,聯儲有意保持這樣的激進加息步調,並表示將視經濟形勢更大或更小幅加息。
鮑威爾承認,實現軟着陸難度很大,一些決定性因素是美聯儲無法掌控的。
“我們(美聯儲)能控制的是需求,不能真正通過我們的政策影響供應。供應是主要問題。而除此之外,還有一些重大的事件,全球發生的地緣政治事件會對明年左右的經濟起非常重要的影響。”
但是,鮑威爾稱美聯儲有工具讓通脹回落到2%、讓通脹可控,雖然過程會痛苦。
讓通脹降至2%的過程也會有些痛苦,可最終,一旦我們不能做到,通脹在經濟中根深蒂固處於高位,那會是最痛苦的事。人們的薪水會因爲高通脹失去價值,最後我們不得不經歷大得多的經濟下滑。因此我們的確需要避免那樣(的後果)。
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