植耀輝: 美股反覆道指六連跌 市況動盪續打守勢牌
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(12日)繼續波動,最新公佈之PPI升幅高於預期,不過三大指數表現反覆,一度全線倒升,但道指很快又再急跌,最多更曾跌超過700點,其後聯儲局主席鮑威爾重申未來兩次議息會議各加50基點屬合理,另一聯儲局官員亦「放鴿」,美股再度出現反彈。最終道指收市跌幅收窄至103點,收報31,730點,但仍連跌第六個交易日;標普500指數亦5點,收報3,930點,納指則微升6點,收報11,370點。
至於港股走勢仍差,本週更一度失守19,200點,若本月餘下時間仍未能收復失地,意味恆指將連續第四個月錄得跌幅,但要扭轉頹勢其實亦有相當難度。其中一大因素在於權重之科技股難有憧憬,除了筆者一直提及之監管陰霾未除、內地經濟表現及疫情因素外,美國科技股急跌亦利淡投資氣氛,故即使北水近期持續掃貨,但大市仍拾級而下。所以恆指縱有反彈,幅度亦可能相當有限;何況現時尚有另一因素要留意,就是環球資金流情況。美匯指數已升至104水平,爲近廿年以來最高,由於4月CPI仍高達8.3%,聯儲局前任或現任行長,均異口同聲認爲要大幅度加息,美元強勢亦將持續。在此情況下,難免引發新興市場走資潮,加上對未來經濟衰退之擔憂,金融市場波動難免。而港股雖有北水「力撐」,只是面對如此動盪市況,投資者亦只宜打好守勢牌,待局勢稍爲清晰及改善再夫添出擊也不遲。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
***********
恆指首要阻力位於19665點
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(12日)美股收市個別發展,道指六連跌盤中曾跌逾600點,三大指數整體收市靠穩,納指倒升6點。美國4月PPI升11%,超出預期的10.7%,不過較前值有所回落,市場仍在消化通脹壓力是否見頂,風險資產繼續被沽售,比特幣一度下挫一成至25,400美元水平,市況氣氛偏淡。金龍中國指數收市升0.65%,北水連續三天淨流入逾60億以上,黑期預示恆指將反彈約200點,4月27日低位19,665點仍爲較重要的阻力。港匯再次觸發7.85的弱方兌換保證水平,資金流走壓力加大亦壓制了股市的彈幅。中國將公佈新增人民幣貸款以及M1&M2等金融數據,留意內地能否加大放水力度以支持經濟。MSCI中國指數加入33只股份,包括特步(01368.HK)、招金礦業(01818.HK)、泡泡瑪特(09992.HK),多隻內房被剔除,包括雅居樂(03383.HK)、富力(02777.HK)、合景泰富(01813.HK)。
技術上,恆指至今仍未有打破浪低於浪的格局,即使恆指於5月10日低見19,178點後反彈,但由於反彈乏力,一日恆指未重越10天及20天線之前,走勢上仍未能過份樂觀。一旦恆指再度跌穿4月27日低位19,665點,指數仍有可能於短期後市內再創月內新低。
(筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.