郭家耀: 內地釋放寬鬆信號 車廠盈利面臨挑戰
安里資產管理董事總經理郭家耀稱,美股周四(12日)個別發展,大市繼續受到通脹及衰退憂慮困擾,道指一度跌幅超過600點,其後跌幅收窄,收市跟標普500指數仍錄得跌幅,科技股逆市向好,納指急跌後倒升收市。美元持續強勢,美國十年期債息回落至2.8厘水平,油價先跌後回穩,金價走勢向下。港股預託證券個別發展,預料大市早段缺乏方向。
內地股市個別發展,滬綜指高開低收,收市下跌0.1%,滬深兩市成交額明顯縮減。
港股走勢疲弱,人民幣匯價受壓,加上外圍股市不穩,不利大市表現,整體成交保持清淡。外圍走勢持續震盪,影響投資者信心,不過內地釋放更多寬鬆政策信號,有助穩定港股表現,預料指數將維持於19,200至20,000點水平上落。
另內地乘聯會數據顯示,4月份內地乘用車市場銷量104.2萬輛,按年下降35.5%。首4個月乘用車市場銷量595.7萬輛,按年下降11.9%。上月新能源乘用車零售銷量28.2萬輛,按年增長78.4%。首4個月新能源乘用車國內零售135.2萬輛,按年增長1.28倍。乘聯會表示,由於疫情和烏克蘭危機導致的風險增多,國內面臨穩增長、穩就業、穩物價等新的挑戰,車市供需兩端也面臨持續嚴峻挑戰。目前國內疫情高點已過,復工復產循序漸進,支援政策加速落地,5月份供給面臨逐步改善的狀態,將盡快滿足產業鏈的正常供給需求。多家車廠遇到供應鏈瓶頸及原料價格上升壓力,產能及盈利能力將面臨挑戰。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,沒持有上述股份)~
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