高盛:料香港銀行股23-24年每年每股盈利有約20%增長 中銀香港等股評級“買入”
高盛發表報吿指,該行的美國經濟學家已留意到衰退風險上升,但認為此並非不可避免。根據該行進行的衰退情境分析,假設美聯儲一如在衰退年份(2008至2009年及2019年至2020年)將利率降至零,對銀行的利潤率會產生負面影響。此外,由於貸款需求疲軟、信貸費用增加和市場相關收入下降,銀行盈利或會受壓。
高盛提到,參考歷史數據,在美國經濟衰退的情況下,相對於其2023至2024年基礎情境,銀行業盈利下行風險約為30%至40%,約三分二的盈利下行來自減息,另外約30%來自信貸質素下降。此外,參考以往谷底的市盈率倍數假設衰退情境股價,該行估計目前香港銀行股股價意味有約20%的衰退風險機會。
不過,高盛仍然看好香港銀行股,預期行業於2023年至2024年間的每股盈利每年有約20%增長,稱港銀今年首季業績表現顯示淨息差擴張,是該行看好盈利上升的重點。
該行維持對港銀股的預測、評級及目標價,中銀香港(2388.HK)、匯控(0005.HK)及渣打(2888.HK) 評級均為“買入”,目標價分別40港元、65港元及78港元,其中中銀香港列於確信名單中。至於恆生(0011.HK)及大新銀行(2356.HK)評級同為“中性”,目標價分別166港元及8.4港元。
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