乘聯會:內地車市供需面臨持續嚴峻挑戰 料5月營銷按年有較大負增長
中國乘用車市場信息聯席會表示,由於新冠肺炎疫情和烏克蘭危機導致風險與挑戰超預期地增多,內地面臨穩增長、穩就業、穩物價等新的挑戰,5月全國乘用車市場供需兩端面臨持續嚴峻挑戰。
從供給端看,3月PPI按年上漲8.3%,前期鎳礦價格波動的損失超預期,加之鋰礦漲價,個別地區運輸效率降低和運輸成本上漲,國內車企成本已經明顯上漲。從需求端看,隨著中概股和國內股市的市值下降,部份服務行業運行低迷,疫情下的居民收入下降,車市消費購買力受損,近期購車意願下降。
目前國內疫情高點已過,復工復產循序漸進,支持政策加速落地。長春的汽車製造能力在5月快速「滿血復活」。上海部份企業4月中下旬開始的復工復產逐漸推進,5月供給面臨逐步改善的狀態,將盡快滿足產業鏈的正常供給需求。目前汽車產業鏈企業逐漸從「救火式」應急反應,轉變為常態化的高韌性供應鏈管理。
乘聯會分析,今年面臨複雜的市場營銷環境指,相對於4月份28個省市的疫情多點散發,5月的狀態會有明顯改善,3月至4月延遲消費需求應有一定的釋放,有利於5月的零售逐步恢復。對於5月份市場,「五一」第一周訂單和交車較4月有明顯改善,但去年同期「五一」有30%以上下跌,市場復甦壓力還是很大,加上北京及鄭州等地疫情加劇及嚴格的防疫政策,估計5月營銷按年還有較大負增長。
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