瑞銀汪濤估計人民幣將進一步貶值 年底兌美元料貶至6.9水平
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤預期,人民幣匯率還將進一步貶值,預計人行在匯率和其他政策目標之間尋求平衡,相信人行不會將人民幣貶值作爲拉動經濟增長的工具。
她指,人行仍有穩定匯率的諸多工具,可以進一步下調外匯存款準備金率,並可增加在岸市場(例如提升遠期售匯的外匯風險準備金),和離岸市場做空人民幣的成本(例如提高香港離岸人民幣的CNH HIBOR利率)。
汪濤將今年底人民幣對美元的預測從6.6調至6.9,明年底預測調至6.7。她預計未來幾個月內人民幣兌美元會進一步走弱,年底達到6.9。由於近期美元保持強勢勢頭,中國出口和經濟走弱,人民幣對美元在年中可能突破7這個關口,不過年底應該重新回到7以內,主因預計下半年防疫政策可能有所放鬆、拖累逐漸消退,經濟增長勢頭企穩反彈,市場信心逐漸恢復。
瑞銀投行全球外匯策略師預測在明年美元對其他主要貨幣走弱,同時預計中國經濟會進一步復甦。因此,預計人民幣會小幅升值至6.7。
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