《大行報告》美銀證券:內銀H股首季純利按年增長放慢至7.4% 續看好郵儲行(01658.HK)
美銀證券發表研究報告指,內銀H股首季淨利潤增長幅度平均爲7.4%,較去年全年的平均增長12.9%放緩,核心盈利增長亦從4.9%放緩至1.5%,其中五大行盈利平均增長6%至7%。
首季內銀淨息差(NIM)平均按季下降1個基點至2.02%,考慮到貸款市場報價利率下調的延遲影響及當局表明將支持實體經濟發展,銀行預計將面臨更大下行壓力,同時高收益零售貸款增長疲軟,亦可能對零售銀行的貸款收益率造成壓力。
內銀平均淨不良貸款形成率按年上升8個基點至18個基點,平均不良貸款率則下降至1.31%。內銀除要面對來自房地產行業的挑戰外,近期的封城措施亦加劇消費者貸款及信用卡貸款的不確定性。
美銀認爲,未來幾個季度內銀盈利增長將進一步溫和放緩,指出年初至今內銀H股表現整體上漲約2.4%,跑贏MSCI中國指數、恆指及恆生中國H股金融行業指數,預期銀行股在波動的市場中表現相對較好,繼續看好郵儲銀行(01658.HK)及大型銀行的穩健增長。
該行又指,農行(01288.HK)、郵儲行、招行(03968.HK)、寧波銀行(002142.SZ)及重慶農村商業銀行(03618.HK)料將維持較高的撥備覆蓋水平作緩衝,有助支持淨利潤增長,而交通銀行(03328.HK)、光大銀行(06818.HK)、中信銀行(00998.HK)、民生銀行(01988.HK)及浦發銀行(600000.SH)則可能需要增加撥備。
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