植耀輝: 息口去向成後市關鍵 港股宜續打守勢牌
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,隨著蘋果公司(AAPL.US)公布季績,美股季績期已暫告一段落,不過重頭戲始終屬於下周聯儲局議息會議結果。下月加息0.5厘應該已是市場共識亦未必會有太大爭議,畢竟上月消費物價指數(CPI)按年增8.5%,增幅為四十年以來最高。但其後兩次議息(15/6)及(27/7)是否仍需要大幅加息,則投資者仍會高度關注,因根據利率期貨市場之最新推算,6月及7月議息聯儲局將各加0.5厘,即短短一季內聯儲局將可能上調利率1.5厘!雖說壓抑通脹是聯儲局當務之急,但當地經濟以至金融市場是否已有充足準備去應對則是另一回事;何況地緣局勢及新冠疫情仍存在相當大變數,故暫會視相關情況為管理預期之舉措。但可以肯定的是,美元相對其他貨幣維持強勢之狀況短期內難以扭轉。
至於港股最新部署,除非今日港股出現強勁反彈,否則4月恆指將延續跌勢,並連續第三個月下跌。踏入傳統「五窮月」,統計過去四十年恆指5月表現,有18年錄得升幅,亦即升跌比例其實也是一半半。惟正如上文提到,議息結果及未來息口去向對金融市場會有相當深遠影響,所以筆者亦不厭其煩地再次提醒。另外,內地疫情亦持續影響經濟以至A股表現,單計本月上綜指跌幅便接近8.5%(恆指截至昨日為止暫跌7.8%)!A股表現疲弱亦會拖累港股表現,在變數仍多的情況下,雖然有點無奈,但投資者現時仍只宜先打守勢牌,待形勢稍為明朗後再作部署。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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恆指仍未擺脫反覆向下之勢頭
耀才研究部稱,美股隔晚(28日)造好,雖然首季GDP意外倒退,但科技股顯著反彈加上個別道指成份股季績理想均利好氣氛。不過焦點仍集中於下周聯儲局議息會議結果身上;另外盤後兩大科技龍頭Amazon(AMZN.US)及Apple(AAPL.US)公布季績後雙雙下跌,預期亦會加劇美股波動。港股方面,昨日連續第三個交易日上升,雖然不少股份走勢略見回穩,不過整體投資氣氛仍相當審慎,另外大市沽空比率進一步升至23%,情況值得關注。預期港股即使能延續反彈,力度亦相當有限,暫觀望20,000點能否守穩。個別消息方面,受惠油價上升加上首季業績表現理想,預期油股仍會是市場焦點,而中海油(00883.HK)特別息1.18港元亦算有驚喜,相關板塊短期仍有望看高一線。
技術上,恆指於20,000點水平見有不俗支持力,惟反彈動力亦略為不足,反映投資者入市意欲仍不大,另外10天線(20,621點)仍為短期阻力,故一日未能突破此水平,後市仍未擺脫反覆向下之勢頭。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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