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南下資金持續抄底,港股賺錢機會在哪裏?

來源:申萬宏源香港

南下資金分析及配置策略

南下資金持倉比例最高港股

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南下資金的持續抄底:以互聯網行業爲主

  • 互聯網(傳媒+社服)是南下資金搶籌最多的行業;金融、汽車、公用事業和電子則出現淨賣出。

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互聯網積極信號變多

  • 互聯網的監管框架在2021年基本確立,2022年延續,並沒有進一步嚴格。而近期從中央及部委會議到媒體,釋放出的積極信號已然變多

  • 國務院金穩委會議:促進平臺經濟平穩健康發展,提高國際競爭力

  • 《經濟日報》:「市場主體和相關方可以放下顧慮,繼續用好國際國內兩個大市場,增強創新發展能力,賦能經濟轉型。」

  • 中央網信辦:將爲廣大互聯網企業健康持續發展提供有力保障

爲什麼要買港股?

與A股相比,港股的優勢在於:

  • 估值水平明顯更低

  • 中概股回購熱潮

  • 股息收益率相對較高

大市穩後估值下探至歷史低位

當前恆生指數的遠期市盈率絕對值已經回到了2018年三季度及2020年3月等底部時段的水平,當前指數的估值水平已經極具吸引力圖片

哪些行業支撐着今年以來指數的平穩?

  • 二季度開始,宏觀和上市公司數據重新回到大衆視野,基本面的重要性開始有所提升

  • 石油石化、汽車和銀行是支撐今年以來恆指盈利預期的主要行業;而社會服務、商貿零售、房地產、傳媒則有明顯的負貢獻。圖片

業績發佈後回購可期

  • 港股市場的回購公司數和回購金額均快速攀升,凸顯以上市公司爲代表的產業資本認爲自身公司的股價被相當程度的低估

  • 考慮到當前港股幾乎所有行業的估值水平均處於相當吸引的水平,我們認爲今年年報季結束後的回購可期

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高股息的防禦價值

  • 港股穩定高股息的公司主要分佈於銀行、公用事業、通信、原材料和香港地產板塊。

  • 以恆生高股息指數爲例,當前股息率6.5%,與美債收益率的利差維持在逾400個基點的水平弱勢市場中,股息率對配置價值更有參考意義。

  • 高股息個股股息收入爲投資者提供穩定回報

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高息藍籌「賺息又賺價」

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買什麼? 選股方面,建議結合:

  • A股稀缺性獨特公司

  • 較A股有較大折讓股價對北水敏感度高

  • 北水持有度高

  • 成交金額具代表性的股份

較A股有較大折讓

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