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渣打降年底人幣匯價預測至6.6 內地資本外流仍可控
阿思達克 04-27 11:42
渣打發表報告,指中國宏觀展望疲弱、中美息差急速收窄及持續資本外流,導致人民幣次季跑輸美元及一籃子貨幣。該行降今年次季底人民幣兌美元預測,由6.35降至6.7;第三季底由6.4降至6.65;今年底由6.5降至6.6。該行預料人民幣匯率CFETS指數年底將降至100。 報告料內地政府或歡迎人民幣貶值,以支持增長及出口,而資本外流似乎可控。由於美聯儲「轉鷹」限制中國境內貨幣政策空間,人民幣走低可以消減經濟壓力及在外圍競爭加劇下提升出口競爭力。報告稱,人匯估值仍高企。本年至今人民幣匯率CFETS指數仍升0.88%,自2020年起累升13%。 報告稱,中國資本外流急速加快的風險仍低,不過資本外流或持續至次季。初步數據顯着內地股市及債市4月資本外流放緩,因大部分中國債券海外持有人屬長期投資者,而所有非法資本外流渠道已被堵塞。此外,中國「動態清零」政策亦限制進口及減少服務業資金外流,意味經常賬盈餘料維持穩固。 在岸人民幣現微升9點子,報6.5556;離岸人民幣現升38點子,報6.5835。
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