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互聯網22Q1運營數據跟蹤:用户粘性同比增長,廣吿增速較為承壓
格隆匯 04-27 11:25

本文來自:上海證券報,作者:温婷

事件:22年4月26日,第三方移動互聯網數據平台QuestMoblie公佈22Q1移動互聯網MAU、月人均使用時長、互聯網廣吿市場規模等監測數據。22M3移動互聯網MAU 11.83億人(yoy+1.8%),迎來較高基數下的小幅增長。

移動互聯網生態:移動互聯網用户使用深度加深,短視頻流量較快增長。根據QuestMobile數據,1)移動互聯網流量同比增長。22M3月人均使用時長162小時(yoy+12%),月人均使用次數2637次(yoy+4.4%),移動互聯網流量(以月人均使用時長乘以MAU計)yoy+14%。疫情反覆下居民活動線上化程度提高,線上內容更豐富、服務更全面,互聯網用户粘性有望繼續提升。2)22M3短視頻實現MAU、用户粘性雙升。22M3短視頻行業MAU達9.25億人(yoy+4.5%),月人均使用時長56.4小時(yoy+24%);MAU、時長增速均快於互聯網行業,沉浸式內容擴展有望使得短視頻行業流量持續增長。

“銀髮人羣”、下沉市場有望成為當下互聯網用户主要增長點。1)中老年用户羣體或將成為互聯網用户的重要增長來源。根據QuestMobile數據,22M3移動互聯網網民中51歲以上用户佔比同比提升1.6pcts,41-50歲網民佔比同比提升0.4pcts。主要系我國居民老齡化趨勢,以及工信部對APP“適老化”升級推動下,APP“大字模式”等老年人友好功能的普及。短視頻應用中老年用户佔比同比增長,極速版佔比高於主站。根據極光數據,22M3快手、快手極速版、抖音、抖音極速版46歲以上活躍用户佔比分別20.5%/26.6%/17.1%/ 28.1%,同比增長分別1.62/1.25/0.82/0.63pcts。短視頻平台具備高互動性、易操作性,有望持續拓展中老年用户羣體。2)極速版app、短視頻應用有望推動下沉市場互聯網滲透率繼續提升。目前全網用户城際分佈結構已整體趨穩,後續需根據下沉市場用户興趣偏好、用户心智,進行鍼對性的內容投入及營銷。極速版app具備功能簡便、節省流量、觀看可獲取紅包等現金獎勵等特點,有望持續開拓下沉市場用户來源。根據Questmobile,22M3下沉用户更關注視頻、汽車等領域;根據極光數據,22Q1快手、快手極速版、抖音、抖音極速版三線及以下城市月均DAU佔比均環比提升。隨着內容視頻化趨勢逐步加深,下沉市場有望成為短視頻應用的重要增長空間。

互聯網廣吿:互聯網廣吿行業22年預計整體增速減緩,短視頻廣吿有望跑贏行業。根據Quest Mobile數據,22Q1中國互聯網廣吿市場規模預計為1429.2億元,同比增長3.9%,增速下滑。我們認為,22年互聯網廣吿行業增長將承壓,市場規模增速將由21年的約20%下滑至個位數。主要考慮:1)22H1疫情反覆下實體經濟受到較大影響,廣吿主預算下降。2)21Q3以來,特定行業受監管導致廣吿投放預算縮減,預計將影響到22年前兩個季度。3)21H1互聯網廣吿增長較快,22H1面臨較高基數壓力。4)監管層限制算法推薦對個人信息的使用,廣吿投放精準度受負面影響。短視頻廣吿具備較強交互和交易轉化屬性,我們認為,在經濟環境整體較為收縮時,廣吿主會更加傾向於具備高用户粘性、個性化推薦能力的短視頻平台,短視頻廣吿市場份額有望提升。

投資建議:我們認為,隨着線上場景的逐步拓展,內容的持續豐富,互聯網行業用户粘性有望繼續提升,維持互聯網傳媒行業“買入”評級。我們推薦符合內容視頻化趨勢,流量有望持續增長的頭部廠商,推薦騰訊控股、快手科技。

風險提示競爭加劇風險,市場監管風險,用户增長放緩風險,宏觀經濟風險

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